Thread by @rafathebuilder, This will be live thread where I document thoughts and snippets of [...]

This will be live thread where I document thoughts and snippets of the essay collection 'Breaking Smart':

"An in-depth exploration (~30k words) of how software is eating the world, based on research supported by Andreessen-Horowitz in 2014."

Essays are freely available online.

"People change, then forget that they changed, and act as though they always behaved a certain way and could never change again" - M. Andreessen

I've drastically changed my work, and still am +unaware at how much my perspectives and behaviors have been shaped by social media.

There have been 3 soft technologies in human civilization: Money, Writing, and now - Software.

They are seemingly ephemeral, but embodied in physical forms:

Software > Hardware
Money > Credit Cards
Writing > Books

Although software existed before WWII, you could consider that is was used as enabler of hardware, not the other way around. The year 2000 changed this, starting with the information economy.

The implications are vast here. Specifically consider new labor (teens) not accounted for which are 'hacking' software and contributing to the economy / culture (tiktok?) - for the cheap price of a tablet / laptop / phone plus some data. (e.g. Napster?)

Makes me wonder about unseen effects currently impacting the economy, especially with the creator, indie economy and no-code toolkits.

Did not know that in 2000 was a breakthrough of power consumption in chips. Which means that was the turning point on low cost, low power mobile devices - setting the stage for the iPhone and tablets to come. Then pair this with reliable and cheap cloud infrastructure.

Reminds me of the stratchery essay: https://stratechery. com/2020/the-end-of-the-beginning/

"In other words, today’s cloud and mobile companies — Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Google — may very well be the GM, Ford, and Chrysler of the 21st century...

The beginning era of technology, where new challengers were started every year, has come to an end; however, that does not mean the impact of technology is somehow diminished: it in fact means the impact is only getting started." - Stratechery

Uber and Lyft are good examples of how a seemingly trivial enhancements to the cab industry (automated pickup and payment) led to landscape changes: they proved trust could be based on data, and allowed for carless living - then impacting resources allocated to other goods.

Before:
Car = Freedom

Now:
Car = Accessory
Life-Hacking = Freedom (OR where's your hustle?)

As I told my mother yesterday: "I want freedom FROM a car" --- very different than "I have freedom because of my car"

I remember the first time I used Uber "This is magic." While previous generation complained about safety: "Don't get in cars with strangers"

Makes sense that we're drastically underestimating the impact of tech. Also may make sense that we may be about to experience the most intense bull-run ever in the history of humanity.

How am I being aligned to the impact of software? How can I be on the winning side of history?

So: Why have we systematically underestimated the impact of software?...

First off, makes sense since humans are terrible at understanding compounding effects. I personally feel like we tend to think linearly, and as a result: overestimate short-term, and underestimate long term.

Second - a maturing environment: from installation to deployment phase. Agreed, unfortunately I can't see beyond that. What happens after deployment?

From my experience in SaaS - lot's of chaos, and then adaptation to the new toolkit. As well as 'build' and 'revise'

Third - as we discussed previously - a lot of the impact happens quite secretly / disguised form. For example: chain stores were able to proliferate due to predictable supply chain innovations (i.e. trains).

Fourth - and VGR proposes this is unique to software - is that the impact is being led by younger people instead of adoption by older generations. To me it feels maybe unpredictable because teens are also unpredictable.

Interesting to consider that most of the 'youth revolution' is happening on video, text messaging apps and such.

This makes it invisible, definitely. You aren't 'going to the concert' the discussion, political discussions, and organizing is happening in silence, at home... huh.

"what the smartest people do on the weekend is what everyone else will do during the week in ten years." haha, yes.

What am I doing on the weekend? building an independent community / business. I wonder if I'm part of the old crowd or the new crowd. (or in between).

The software then disrupts the whole suburban life script. My aunt thinks that college will be the most life-defining moment in the next 20 years. I disagree, especially with upcoming corporate sponsored degrees for tech jobs.

I agree, certifications and licenses etc. seem like outdated processes. Even hiring the few people on the team I didn't even ask about schooling, just about project work - ideally experience working independently in a contractor fashion.

Really enjoyed the Prometheus analogy: Software as a Promethean technology, emerging in traditional institutions and being unleashed by open internet and silicon valley.

I love identifying life scripts, so as to consciously evaluate whether I want to participate in them or not. For example: marriage institution (yes I decided to participate).

Love concept of the credentialist script. Something I'll need to think about, what is the alternative?

Latest Threads Unrolled: