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Ireland's epidemic has been shadowing the trajectory of most European countries, most closely Denmark, but also countries like Spain and Greece.
It's Greece I'm going to focus on, due to a few similarities, to try offer encouragement that recent measures in Dublin can help.
It's Greece I'm going to focus on, due to a few similarities, to try offer encouragement that recent measures in Dublin can help.
2 months ago on July 20th, this was the picture:
14-day incidence per 100,000:
Spain: 18.0
Ireland: 4.8
Greece: 4.6
Hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths were low and stable in all 3 countries.
14-day incidence per 100,000:
Spain: 18.0
Ireland: 4.8
Greece: 4.6
Hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths were low and stable in all 3 countries.
Over the next month, the virus gained traction as people gradually began to embrace the new normal.
By August 20th, all 3 countries were in identical proportions to July, except with ~6 times more infection:
14-day incidence per 100,000:
Spain: 138.7
Ireland: 25.4
Greece: 25.3
By August 20th, all 3 countries were in identical proportions to July, except with ~6 times more infection:
14-day incidence per 100,000:
Spain: 138.7
Ireland: 25.4
Greece: 25.3
Deaths, hospital admissions, ICU admissions were still very low.
Today, September 20th:
14-day incidence per 100,000:
Spain: 300.5
Ireland: 63.2
Greece: 33.5
Ireland are still closely shadowing Spain in relative increase - but Greece somehow managed to slow the tide.
Today, September 20th:
14-day incidence per 100,000:
Spain: 300.5
Ireland: 63.2
Greece: 33.5
Ireland are still closely shadowing Spain in relative increase - but Greece somehow managed to slow the tide.
Spain, in not slowing their epidemic, meant the tremendous surge in cases eventually translated to a surge in funerals.
July 20th to August 20th: 391 dead
August 20th to September 20th: 1,682 dead
Death lags weeks behind cases, and it creates a false sense of calm.
July 20th to August 20th: 391 dead
August 20th to September 20th: 1,682 dead
Death lags weeks behind cases, and it creates a false sense of calm.
That's what Ireland is trying to avoid, ultimately, people burying their loved ones.
So it's worth trying to drill down into whether Greece did something different to (for now) slow their growth rate to less than half the European average.
The answer is yes, they did a lot.
So it's worth trying to drill down into whether Greece did something different to (for now) slow their growth rate to less than half the European average.
The answer is yes, they did a lot.
Testing, August 20th to September 20th:
Spain: 2,731,164
Greece: 385,763
Ireland: 309,485
Tests per capita, August 20th to September 20th:
Ireland: 309,485
Spain: 290,549
Greece: 177,771
One consideration is Greece tested less and therefore found fewer cases.
Spain: 2,731,164
Greece: 385,763
Ireland: 309,485
Tests per capita, August 20th to September 20th:
Ireland: 309,485
Spain: 290,549
Greece: 177,771
One consideration is Greece tested less and therefore found fewer cases.
But if you test fewer people when infection is widespread, more of the ones being tested should have it, and the positivity rate should rise markedly.
Except it didn't rise much at all, so what else could explain their slowing it down?
Except it didn't rise much at all, so what else could explain their slowing it down?
On August 12th, a raft of deeply unpopular measures went into effect in Greece.
Among those measures, curfews were imposed, added restrictions put on restaurants and pubs, Sunday church and other mass services cancelled. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-greece-imposes-curfew-on-bars-and-restaurants-amid-spike-in-covid-cases-12047096
Among those measures, curfews were imposed, added restrictions put on restaurants and pubs, Sunday church and other mass services cancelled. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-greece-imposes-curfew-on-bars-and-restaurants-amid-spike-in-covid-cases-12047096
They did this with 24 hour notice leading to uproar.
Some Greek restaurants had to dump food because the additional restrictions meant it would go off.
They complained about the lack of notice and all of this should sound familiar. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-greece-has-shut-down-bar-owners-at-tourist-hotspot-hit-with-curfew-after-covid-19-spike-12050526
Some Greek restaurants had to dump food because the additional restrictions meant it would go off.
They complained about the lack of notice and all of this should sound familiar. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-greece-has-shut-down-bar-owners-at-tourist-hotspot-hit-with-curfew-after-covid-19-spike-12050526
Greece acted pre-emptively at a 14-day incidence of below 25.0 per 100,000.
Their rationale for doing so is they have a lot of old people and don't have enough ICU or hospital beds to cope with any big surge in autumn or winter.
That should feel familiar, too.
Their rationale for doing so is they have a lot of old people and don't have enough ICU or hospital beds to cope with any big surge in autumn or winter.
That should feel familiar, too.
The results so far are tentatively promising.
While 14-day incidences are vulnerable to rapidly changing, and can always prompt the introduction of even stricter measures, for now Greece turned back the European tide.
That's not to say everything is peachy for them, either.
While 14-day incidences are vulnerable to rapidly changing, and can always prompt the introduction of even stricter measures, for now Greece turned back the European tide.
That's not to say everything is peachy for them, either.
Right now, today, the 14-day cumulative deaths per 100,000:
Spain: 2.3
Greece: 0.5
Ireland: 0.3
But the difference between 33.5 and 63.2 infection is enormous when deaths are a lagging metric, and they will see fewer deaths than us when our deaths lag - which they will.
Spain: 2.3
Greece: 0.5
Ireland: 0.3
But the difference between 33.5 and 63.2 infection is enormous when deaths are a lagging metric, and they will see fewer deaths than us when our deaths lag - which they will.
Athens has a 14day incidence of 42.7 per 100,000 (Dublin 123.6).
Even that has prompted more pre-emptive measures in effect tomorrow.
Included in them is banning both indoor and outdoor gatherings of 10 people, closing cinemas, mandating work-from-home. https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/09/19/greece-introduces-stricter-measures-in-athens-as-virus-cases-surge/
Even that has prompted more pre-emptive measures in effect tomorrow.
Included in them is banning both indoor and outdoor gatherings of 10 people, closing cinemas, mandating work-from-home. https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/09/19/greece-introduces-stricter-measures-in-athens-as-virus-cases-surge/
The reason Greece picks a much lower 14-day incidence to react swiftly, is they have proportionately a lot of old people.
All of their pre-emptive measures hurt the economy but their goal is keeping older - all - people alive and to prevent ICU from overwhelming.
All of their pre-emptive measures hurt the economy but their goal is keeping older - all - people alive and to prevent ICU from overwhelming.
Picking Greece to compare can seem very arbitrary, and not very instructive on causation vs coincidence, but they do have similar ICU constraints and their measures prompted the same criticisms.
Meanwhile Western Europe were doing mostly same thing - and getting same results.
Meanwhile Western Europe were doing mostly same thing - and getting same results.
We shadow all of these.
14-day incidence per 100,000:
July 20th:
Belgium: 16.4
Netherlands: 6.4
Denmark: 5.9
Ireland: 4.8
August 20th:
Belgium: 55.5
Netherlands: 46.8
Denmark: 30.2
Ireland: 25.4
September 20th:
Belgium: 105.4
Netherlands: 104.4
Denmark: 74.1
Ireland: 63.2
14-day incidence per 100,000:
July 20th:
Belgium: 16.4
Netherlands: 6.4
Denmark: 5.9
Ireland: 4.8
August 20th:
Belgium: 55.5
Netherlands: 46.8
Denmark: 30.2
Ireland: 25.4
September 20th:
Belgium: 105.4
Netherlands: 104.4
Denmark: 74.1
Ireland: 63.2
At the moment, with very few exceptions (essentially Scandinavia and the Baltics), the entirety of Europe - particular Western Europe - are following very similar trajectories.
Even Germany, doing so well, the virus is decimating their nursing homes again in recent weeks.
Even Germany, doing so well, the virus is decimating their nursing homes again in recent weeks.
Ireland have not been as pre-emptive as Greece but we have chosen to be more reactive than Spain.
We are somewhere in the middle of those different approaches.
7 weeks after Greece reached for those "premature restrictions", they are experiencing slower growth.
We are somewhere in the middle of those different approaches.
7 weeks after Greece reached for those "premature restrictions", they are experiencing slower growth.
This is written to give people hope that measures in Dublin can help, not to say which approach is better.
Dublin's recent measures will hopefully work to achieve a similar outcome of slowing growth and keeping people alive.
That's what all of us want.
Dublin's recent measures will hopefully work to achieve a similar outcome of slowing growth and keeping people alive.
That's what all of us want.
