Nawaz Sharif’s speech at the APC was neither his boldest ever (see 2007-2009, and 2017-2018) nor coherent or original with respect to context. He has said all that he said before. Like with Musharraf, the only chance for the opposition is the implosion of the current set-up.

1/n

Is such an implosion on the cards?

PM Khan & the establishment faced three challenges in 2020: 1) public health re #COVID19 2) economic stability 3) Afghanistan peace & geopolitics.

Pakistan not out of the woods on any. But does the question for Sharif & Zardari is...

2/n

... Does the opposition offer ANY alternative to what’s already on tap?

The #coronavirus has not caused the catastrophic fatalities or overwhelming of the public health system it was expected to. Credit govt or providence, or both, but...

IK 1 - Opp 0.

3/n

The economy, though not growing, is certainly not the disaster many predicted it would be back when #COVID19 first hit. BISP/ Ehsaas+SME support via loans and utility bills’ support did enough to stave off economic collapse. Credit govt or not, but...

IK 2 - Opp 0.

4/n

This leaves Afghanistan & geopolitics...

This may be the area of greatest vulnerability because so much is out of Pakistan’s hands.

Anti Shia consolidation the last few weeks not independent or unrelated.

Kashmir + August 5 make the challenge far more complex.

...

5/n

But even here, does Nawaz Sharif or the PPP have anything to offer either GHQ/Aabpara (or anyone else), anything that IK isn’t offering?

Not really.

Outside of a bolt of lightening, there is little that indicates a clear and present threat to the existing order.

6/n

Of course, pluralism—under assault globally—will continue to shrink.

The free media will continue operating under duress. A threshold of critical mass has yet to be breached. .

All in all, hard to see how IK + the establishment won’t continue to be > Opposition.

7/7.