One last time then;

We don’t know what the operational false positive (case) rate is.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895843/S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdf

False positives CANNOT be higher than TOTAL positives (ie reality).

Aug 1st: 147,002
ACTUAL CASES: 494

So if FPR CANNOT be higher than 0.37%. https://twitter.com/juliahb1/status/1307575639579471874

Similarly Sep 6th: 166,119 (+13%)

ACTUAL CASES: 2,051 (+292%)

So either FPR has increased to 1.2% (quadrupled) in a MONTH or this is a genuine rise in cases.

We also don’t test randomly, we test symptomatic patients or contacts - meaning prevalence much higher.

Lastly, many swabs are double swabs to test positive (some aren’t.)
In that circumstance you need BOTH to be positive, so for a double swab false positive rate will be 0.36*0.36 = 0.0064%.

The same is true if we did confirmatory swabs on ALL tests.

Hope that helps. (Again).