Why we need to act NOW.

Though it was at or below 1 -- it was 0.7-0.9 or 0.8-1.0 -- from the end of May to the middle of August, R has been rising in recent weeks & is now estimated at 1.1-1.4https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 1/11 #latest-r-number-and-growth-rate">https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk #latest-r-number-and-growth-rate">https://www.gov.uk/guidance/...
The R number and growth rate in the UK

The latest reproduction number (R) and growth rate of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#latest-r-number-and-growth-rate
The problem: it& #39;s much easier to boost R up than it is to bring it back down. One man on a pub crawl can drive the local R uphttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. But the vast majority need to act collectively, with constraint & in conformity w shared rules, to bring R back down. 2/11 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-e...
Coronavirus: 'Rule-breaking Bolton pub crawl' saw cases rise

A holidaymaker who did not self-isolate and went on a night out spread the virus, a counclor says.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353
We can see from this graph that the rising slopes of new cases per day are steeper than the declinehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 3/11
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases ">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases&quo...
The above graph is distorted by the fact that there is now much more detection of cases via testing than there was in March-May. But the steeper rise than the decline also shows up in daily new Covid hospital admissionshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 4/11
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare ">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcar...
It& #39;s estimated that there are now about 7,500 new daily cases, and that the number of new cases is doubling every seven dayshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. If therefore we wait 1, 2, or 3 weeks, we& #39;ll then be faced with 15,000, 30,000, or 60,000 new cases a day respectively. 5/11 https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/update-18-september">https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/upda...
COVID doubling every 7 days

The number of daily new cases continues to climb in the UK, with the highest numbers in the North of England and the Midlands.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/update-18-september
A slow descent from 15k, 30k or 60k will take much longer than a slow descent from 7.5k. In the meantime, these tens of thousands of daily new cases will translate into increases in hospitalisations & deaths. 6/11
The time, therefore, for decisive action is now.

Of course, we should have taken action earlier. But that& #39;s no longer possible. (I wouldn& #39;t start here. We haven& #39;t got a time machine. Etc.) 7/11
Since, however, things don& #39;t yet look so bad – ambulance sirens aren& #39;t yet blaring through the night, hospitals aren& #39;t yet overflowing & the sun is shining – it will be difficult to make the case to the public that we must take decisive action now. 8/11
But if that case isn& #39;t made now, then we& #39;ll wait again, as we did in March, until the exponential growth has rocketed so high up the slope that it& #39;s no longer possible to ignore. We& #39;ll be forced to take action, which will need to be draconian & brutal by then. 9/11
. @UniversitiesUK employers must therefore step up & join together in acknowledging the crisis we now face & the urgent need for action, as the Principal of @univofstandrews has donehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. 10/11 https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1306998442603040769">https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuk...
In the words of @ucu& #39;s GS @DrJoGradyhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">: "It cannot be business as normal at the moment and [ @UniversitiesUK VC& #39;s] need to stop pretending that is a credible option." 11/11
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54205401">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/educ...
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