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Why we need to act NOW.
Though it was at or below 1 -- it was 0.7-0.9 or 0.8-1.0 -- from the end of May to the middle of August, R has been rising in recent weeks & is now estimated at 1.1-1.4
. 1/11 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#latest-r-number-and-growth-rate
Though it was at or below 1 -- it was 0.7-0.9 or 0.8-1.0 -- from the end of May to the middle of August, R has been rising in recent weeks & is now estimated at 1.1-1.4
. 1/11 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#latest-r-number-and-growth-rate
The problem: it's much easier to boost R up than it is to bring it back down. One man on a pub crawl can drive the local R up. But the vast majority need to act collectively, with constraint & in conformity w shared rules, to bring R back down. 2/11 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353
. But the vast majority need to act collectively, with constraint & in conformity w shared rules, to bring R back down. 2/11 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353
We can see from this graph that the rising slopes of new cases per day are steeper than the decline. 3/11
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
. 3/11https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
The above graph is distorted by the fact that there is now much more detection of cases via testing than there was in March-May. But the steeper rise than the decline also shows up in daily new Covid hospital admissions. 4/11
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
. 4/11https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
It's estimated that there are now about 7,500 new daily cases, and that the number of new cases is doubling every seven days. If therefore we wait 1, 2, or 3 weeks, we'll then be faced with 15,000, 30,000, or 60,000 new cases a day respectively. 5/11 https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/update-18-september
. If therefore we wait 1, 2, or 3 weeks, we'll then be faced with 15,000, 30,000, or 60,000 new cases a day respectively. 5/11 https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/update-18-september
A slow descent from 15k, 30k or 60k will take much longer than a slow descent from 7.5k. In the meantime, these tens of thousands of daily new cases will translate into increases in hospitalisations & deaths. 6/11
The time, therefore, for decisive action is now.
Of course, we should have taken action earlier. But that's no longer possible. (I wouldn't start here. We haven't got a time machine. Etc.) 7/11
Of course, we should have taken action earlier. But that's no longer possible. (I wouldn't start here. We haven't got a time machine. Etc.) 7/11
Since, however, things don't yet look so bad – ambulance sirens aren't yet blaring through the night, hospitals aren't yet overflowing & the sun is shining – it will be difficult to make the case to the public that we must take decisive action now. 8/11
But if that case isn't made now, then we'll wait again, as we did in March, until the exponential growth has rocketed so high up the slope that it's no longer possible to ignore. We'll be forced to take action, which will need to be draconian & brutal by then. 9/11
. @UniversitiesUK employers must therefore step up & join together in acknowledging the crisis we now face & the urgent need for action, as the Principal of @univofstandrews has done. 10/11 https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1306998442603040769
. 10/11 https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1306998442603040769
In the words of @ucu's GS @DrJoGrady: "It cannot be business as normal at the moment and [ @UniversitiesUK VC's] need to stop pretending that is a credible option." 11/11
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54205401
![In the words of @ucu's GS @DrJoGrady: "It cannot be business as normal at the moment and [ @UniversitiesUK VC's] need to stop pretending that is a credible option." 11/11 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54205401](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EiWAAexXcAAYNNT.png "In the words of @ucu's GS @DrJoGrady: \"It cannot be business as normal at the moment and [ @UniversitiesUK VC's] need to stop pretending that is a credible option.\" 11/11 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54205401")
: "It cannot be business as normal at the moment and [ @UniversitiesUK VC's] need to stop pretending that is a credible option." 11/11https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54205401
