To be clear, I believe abortion is wrong. However, I also believe:
• the GOP has cynically used abortion for decades as a wedge issue to get support from white evangelicals, and it has not at all been sincere in wanting to overturn Roe v Wade.
• Trump has been strictly performative on the abortion issue, and he and McConnell have been working to get people appointed to the court who meet a host of "conservative" criteria, but who may only coincidentally be sincere about overturning Roe v Wade.
• It is entirely unclear even if a strident anti-abortionist were appointed to fill Ginsburg's seat that Roe v Wade would be overturned. It is doubtful Roberts will allow it.
• Overturning Roe v Wade would not end abortion--it would simply throw the issue to state governments. While this would be a good outcome, I would think, it is unclear that it will result in substantial restrictions on abortion.
Arguably, state governments have only instituted harsh abortion restrictions because they knew that these had no hope of passing SCOTUS scrutiny. This results in a situation where they can get white evangelical votes, without suffering much of any blow back.
It is an entirely different story if these restrictions might actually become law. How many states would really vote to restrict abortion if the SCOTUS overturned Roe v Wade? Not many. Maybe none.
• This points to the real issue--while a slim majority of people in the US are pro-life to some extent, this does not mean that a majority of Americans are onboard with instituting strict laws against abortion--they aren't.
White evangelicals have given themselves over to magical thinking--they believe getting a majority on the SCOTUS to strike down Roe v Wade will end abortion in America forever. It won't. It will just stir up a hornet's nest and probably set back the pro-life cause for decades.
Making laws should begin with changing minds. You don't make laws and then change minds later--it just doesn't work that way. It only causes resentment.
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