Yesterday we saw that we are nominally below the pandemic threshold and are two weeks (?) from The Crossover Point, the point where deaths from over-reaction exceed deaths from Covid itself.

We also cited that Covid reporting cannot account for 101,400 fatalities as of 5 Sep.

If we take CDC excess death curve & superimpose it upon our case & reported death curve - we are below EoS for cases now. We will be below EoS for excess deaths 3 weeks later - right on time.

Reporting however is a wild card depending on how far they dip into the 101,400 cases.

At this rate of true test-positive daily arrivals (theoretical new cases of Covid each day), the prospects of us drifting much beyond the middle of the herd resistance band, are pretty low.

The level of false-pos continues to rise as testing increases, and cases rise by only the false pos rate. This assumes a 1.55% false positive rate & 35% duplication of tests in the reported positives... making that clear that we are not assuming 100% of positives take a 2nd test.

Then our weekly update on the perspective chart. As one can see we are nearing the seasonal end statistically. We will not know this the true end, until we ethically start tracking program false positives (not theoretical tolerance false positives), by state and lab.