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[THREAD] $FSLY 4hr. Clear H&S pattern, but check out that huge support line that lines up w/ the AVWAP from March low's. If there is another leg down, these will catch the 
. Note that a descending 
pattern = continuation pattern in other words buy the dip 
. $ORCL #TikTok
![[THREAD] $FSLY 4hr. Clear H&S pattern, but check out that huge support line that lines up w/ the AVWAP from March low's. If there is another leg down, these will catch the . Note that a descending pattern = continuation pattern in other words buy the dip . $ORCL #TikTok](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EiTmUQtUcAAeTrJ.jpg "[THREAD] $FSLY 4hr. Clear H&S pattern, but check out that huge support line that lines up w/ the AVWAP from March low's. If there is another leg down, these will catch the . Note that a descending pattern = continuation pattern in other words buy the dip . $ORCL #TikTok")
. Note that a descending pattern = continuation pattern in other words buy the dip . $ORCL #TikTok
1/ Next thing I wanted to touch on was the volume. On average, it takes about 63 bars or 44-46 days for $FSLY to make moves either
(FYI we are on bar 58/day 42).
(FYI we are on bar 58/day 42).
2/ Why volume? Check out the declining volume on $FSLY. You'll notice that before any significant moves happen the volume slowly begins to dissipate as both buyers and sellers begin to get exhausted.. eventually leading to a break of the descending to either or.
to either or.
3/ Psychology. Probably one of the fascinating things about the stock market is the psychology behind it. Now why is this relevant? Well if you pay attention to any news ( esp, $ORCL $MSFT $WMT ) you'll know that $FSLY's biggest customer is #TikTok. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/06/business/fastly-stock-falls-tiktok/index.html
4/ Now sure #TikTok accounts for 12% of revenue in the first half of 2020, but they have other large customers (see pic). You really think these companies won't end up increasing their $FSLY spending when we might end up being put in another lockdown? Even if we don't, they will.
5/ Psychology (again). Let's take the age old phrase "buy the rumor, sell the news" and flip it on its head. Psychologically, a lot of investors are already thinking $FSLY won't have #TikTok as a customer anymore hence the low stock price. One might surmise that the bottom is in.
6/ Now I don't know whether this #TikTok deal with $ORCL / $WMT will be approved, but the price is already factored into $FSLY. But what I do know is that if it were to be approved, this would act as a catalyst to reverse the descending pattern in an aggressive manner.
pattern in an aggressive manner.
7/ As I write this thread, apparently the rumor is Trump will be approving the #TikTok $ORCL deal.
@JonahLupton @TheMarkCooke @MadMraket https://twitter.com/JonahLupton/status/1307432366579879937?s=20
@JonahLupton @TheMarkCooke @MadMraket https://twitter.com/JonahLupton/status/1307432366579879937?s=20
8/ The important thing to note is that these moves can be powerful because the longer the market spends trying to break under this huge support line, the more shorts come in. What happens is we end up getting a mixture of a dip buying rally/ short covering rally. $FSLY #TikTok
9/ Wow. $FSLY $ORCL $WMT https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-19/trump-says-he-s-approved-oracle-deal-for-u-s-tiktok-operations?srnd=markets-vp&sref=yYYRek8e
10/ I just want to remind everyone that while Trump has approved the deal verbally, we still have yet to see what China says. Again, I find myself touching on the psychology behind the stock market. I imagine we see $ORCL $FSLY $WMT potentially gap up on Monday on this.
11/ Let's say hypothetically China has an issue with the #TikTok $ORCL $WMT deal or rumors circulate around them not approving it, this is your chance to jump into $FSLY.
12/ Going back to volume, you'll note that as we get closer to that 63 bar count, we see an increase in volume which corresponds to the price action by $FSLY leading to a breakout from the lower right hand corner of the descending
