It is well-understood that the higher contact patterns among younger adults make those age groups the primary driver of the epidemic. Regardless of the relative roles of vaccines vs infection, the COVID epidemic will be over basically when it is over for 20-35 year olds.1/3

How many people die will, on the other hand, depend primarily on how many older people will be infected before this happens.

In light of this basic property, only the most daring, audacious policy responses would aim to minimize transmission also among these younger groups. 2/3

These strategies gamble that all transmission reductions can be sustained until the game has changed (eg. because of a very effective vaccine).

Paradoxically, the loudest proponents of these strategies are also the first to caution the game is unlikely to change soon. 3/3