Thread by @Tw3rcazette, I used data to find Arsenal an alternative for Houssem Aouar Essentially, [...]

I used data to find Arsenal an alternative for Houssem Aouar

Essentially, we're going to be using 2 steps to find Arsenal an Aouar alternative, in the potential case that he's too expesive.

1. Player similarity model
2. Filtering

PART 1: SIMILARITY MODEL

Firstly, I collected the data for players with 12+ 90's in a few categories, some included:

% Of passes that were low/high/key/crosses
Tackles/Interceptions
Shots p/ touch
Dribbles attempted p/ touch

Basically an attempt to capture players' styles

I used about 30 metrics in total, all aimed to categorise the players behaviour on the pitch

Then used PCA to turn this large set of metrics into a smaller set of metrics, which represented different play styles amongst the players

So I plotted the 2 new variables against each other, with the distance between each player representing how similar they are.

(Yes, I know this looks dumb, with 1100 players the labels can get a bit messy)

Anyways, below are the 30 most similar players to Auoar based on this process:

I think it passes the eye test pretty well

In the next part we'll use some stats to filter this list of 30 into a more manageable list of targets

PART 2: FILTERING

Firstly, We'd want to limit the age of all of these potential targets to 26. big wage/age combos have haunted Arsenal for a while so we need to do our best to limit the age of our targets without compromising quality

It leaves us with this:

Also wanted to further filter for creativity. A connecting player from defence to attack is vital, so I wanted to filter players who performed well in this aspect

Upon removing the entirely unrealistic targets, the set of players that remain are:

- Harit
- Neuhaus
- Bamba
- Brandt
- Blas
- Barella
- Zieliński

Based on further analysis and the viability of the transfer, below is a recommendation ranking of the players above.

7th: Jontahan Bamba. A slight positional mismatch, and isn't as proficient in central areas as Aouar, would not recommend

6th: Ludovic Blas. Promising talent with a good set of skills. A one to watch but I doubt he's ready for the step up.

5th: Amine Harit. Very promising and currently lighting up the Bundesliga. A unique prospect but definitely needs time.

4th: Nicolo Barella. Definitely good enough but a lack of creativity from him means his isn't my favourite choice

Piotr Zielinski:

Great during the build up and with a nice technical skill-set, he has the tools to be a quality player. Though, it would be a bit of a positional mismatch.

Piotr Zielinski:Great during the build up and with a nice technical skill-set, he has the tools to be a quality player. Though, it would be a bit of a positional mismatch.

Florian Neuhaus:

His numbers for a midfielder over the last 2 season are Ramsey-esque, and his ball-carrying from deep makes him incredibly dynamic. Definitely one to watch.

Florian Neuhaus: His numbers for a midfielder over the last 2 season are Ramsey-esque, and his ball-carrying from deep makes him incredibly dynamic. Definitely one to watch.

Julian Brandt:

It'd be a miracle if Arsenal even had half the money to sign him, (if he's even interested in leaving Dortmund) but Brandt has all the tools to plug the creative hole Arsenal need this summer.

Julian Brandt:It'd be a miracle if Arsenal even had half the money to sign him, (if he's even interested in leaving Dortmund) but Brandt has all the tools to plug the creative hole Arsenal need this summer.

Thanks for reading

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