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G’morning. Playbook:
IF THE SCRIPT WERE BEING WRITTEN, this would be the plot twist that would drop jaws in the theater:
IF THE SCRIPT WERE BEING WRITTEN, this would be the plot twist that would drop jaws in the theater:
45 DAYS before Election Day, the Notorious RBG -- the left’s most-beloved and celebrated jurist -- dies, and @senatemajldr, the left’s most-hated lawmaker who is also up for re-election, vows a floor vote on President DONALD TRUMP’S nominee to the Sup Court.
THE U.S. CAPITOL will be center stage over the next 15 weeks until the end of 2020, as the Congress considers this open Supreme Court seat.
THIS IS, QUITE LITERALLY, a mesh of MCCONNELL’S most animating interests: power and judicial nominees. The left frequently says that MCCONNELL is obsessed with power -- and nothing but power.
There is some truth to that -- MCCONNELL is acutely aware of what is afforded to him by being the majority leader, and he says it quite frequently: He controls what comes up for a vote, and what doesn’t and when.
HE USES THAT POWER and that leverage with maximum impact. you should expect that here, w a chance to reshape the court for decades to come & a better than even chance of slipping into the minority, @senatemajldr will leverage every ounce of power afforded to him to fill this seat
MCCONNELL has made his promise plain: “President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.”
PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT MCCONNELL DOESN’T SAY: He doesn’t say when. Rushing the nomination could hurt some vulnerable senators. But it could also guarantee Republicans a Supreme Court seat.
As WaPo’s @pkcapitol put it: “[T]his is a rare moment where a congressional caucus leader's short-term & long-term interests seriously diverge, his/her immediate interests vs legacy. Fascinating political power play ahead.”
HOW HE’S FRAMING IT TO HIS COLLEAGUES: MCCONNELL wrote GOP senators: “This is not the time to prematurely lock yourselves into a position you may later regret. ... I urge you all to be cautious and keep your powder dry until we return to Washington.” https://bit.ly/33OCKfw
SO, EXPECT a nomination and hearings before the election, but not necessarily a vote. IS IT POSSIBLE that he tries to squeeze a vote in before Election Day? Yes. Absolutely -- especially if TRUMP demands it
IS IT POSSIBLE that he pushes the vote until after the election, both as a practical matter to help his vulnerable colleagues, and a motivating factor for his base? Yep. Absolutely.
IS IT POSSIBLE JOE BIDEN wins the presidency, Republicans lose the Senate and MCCONNELL jams through the nominee in the lame duck? Yes, you bet. Can Democrats do anything besides bellyache? No. They can’t.
Despite what you will hear from the left in the coming days, CHUCK SCHUMER’S power is exceedingly limited. Senate Dems have scheduled a 1 p.m. caucus call (h/t MARIANNE LEVINE) to discuss their options.
REMINDER: If MARK KELLY beats MARTHA MCSALLY in Arizona, he could be sworn in at the end of November, altering the tight majority that MCCONNELL has to work with. It would then be 52-48. This seems like a very live option.
YES, @LindseyGrahamSC has said a number of times that Senate should not consider a nominee in the last year of a president’s term. He said it in 2016 during a Judiciary hearing. He said it to @JeffreyGoldberg in 2018 -- if a nominee comes in TRUMP’S last term, he wanted to wait
DOES THAT MEAN, that GRAHAM -- in a neck-in-neck race for re-election -- will stay true to that? No. Absolutely not. In July, he appeared to walk back his 2018 comments in an interview with @mkraju
https://cnn.it/2ZRLfFs
https://cnn.it/2ZRLfFs
YOU WILL HEAR A LOT OF REPUBLICANS say it’s dangerous to have a 4-4 court going into an election, but there was a 4-4 court going into the last election. And this time, it’s more like 5-3, assuming Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS votes with Republicans.
Number of R senators to watch very closely in the coming days. They will get peppered with several questions: Should the SENATE wait until next year to confirm a nominee? And, would you vote no if MCCONNELL put it on the floor? Is a lame-duck vote appropriate?
