Lots to discuss here. For the “gap filling” listen to @Darky999 Sunday night around 10ET. If you have questions PM me so Chris and I can try to address. This election and the motivations of each party just shifted even more drastically but there is TIME component that is huge

The death of RBG ensures that bases of both sides will be HIGHLY motivated to make sure that “their justice”gets appointed. While Roberts & on occasion Gorsuch will side with more liberal positions adding another conservative justice swings policy in USA for 30 years. BIG STAKES

4 intersecting issues:

1. Will there be true vote for SJC nom (other than a show vote) prior to election
2. Will they be able to pass a stimulus bill —knowing Ds won’t cave on national mail in voting procedures now
3. Continuing resolution(CR) by 9/30 or gov shutdown
4. Timing

As a baseline let’s agree for argument sake that whoever loses election night is going to challenge results. SJC now is likely split 5-3 or even worse 4-4. DISADVANTAGE Ds given makeup of appellate courts in battleground states. Thus they WILL play hardball with stimulus and CR

Why this matters — If SJC is split 4-4 appellate (likely conflicting) rulings would stay as the holding. This would be CHAOS in a national election. Think different rulings for when and how to count mail in ballots in MN versus FL and those different rules swinging the election

Politically there are a number of issues at play. Rs will want to nominate someone and get the seat filled prior to Nov 3 or at worst during lame duck session when challenge reaches the SJC. Ds will do anything and everything in their power to stop this. This impacts stim & CR

Larger issue is what this would likely do to the voter bases. Rs who were not going to vote Trump will be VERY motivated w/ the SJC seat — thus waiting until after election makes the most sense to drive turnout —unless Rs think election is already lost. Then they must move NOW

Ds already motivated on both issues to get rid of Trump and preserve the SJC seat but if Rs DO put someone through it impacts stimulus negotiations, CR, the president election, & the senate. IMO Dems will overwhelmingly turn out and win battle ground states for Pres and Senate

There are number of battle ground states & only 4 senators can defect. I think we end up with a “show vote” or potentially no vote prior. Rs likely can’t lose NC&AZ and win Presidency. Look to Collins,Gardner,Mcsally, Tillis, Daines & also Romney, Murkowski, Graham for defection

The NUMBER ONE issue right now is that of timing. Government is out of money without a continuing resolution by 9/30. I don’t see a scenario where Pelosi funds the government if Republicans try to jam through a candidate prior to election or plan to do so in lame duck period

Secondly — and bigger IMO is stimulus impact or lack of agreement thereon — without national mail in voting standards —if Rs try to jam a nominee through. It would likely be a death sentence for Ds to do so. Thus stimulus is in real jeopardy if Rs proceed w/ more than show vote

I do not believe we will get stimulus of the CR by 9/30 if Rs insist on a vote prior to mid January. The reason is the same as it was in June. National mail in voting procedures esp given new makeup of the court. But I think TRUMP will. Question is what Senate Rs want to do

I think we land here. If nom. proceeds — NO continuing resolution no stimulus and a govt shut down. Chaos before election. I think Ds can play the long game and allow it to proceed if they get national mail in voting procedures bc they will likely win P and Sen & bal of power

Of note regarding mail in voting. ALL the SJC was going to do was set a national standard by declaring some state policies constitutional or not — likely they would kick this also back to congress to formulate a national policy.

Senate Rs have 2 ?s we don’t yet know the answers to. This will all play out rapidly and it is what to watch for

1. If try put a Justice on SJC before Jan likely lose turnout battle —are they willing to sacrifice Trump and Senate?
2. Will they forego stimulus for SJC pick?

If nominee is planned to go forward by 9/30 (senators should come out prior so we will know if they have the votes) here is what I see as happened:

Gov shut down
Fail to pass stim
Ds overwhelmingly turn out to vote
Rs win battle & lose war (sen and pres)
True Civil unrest

If no nominee is approved or goes forward

1. Republican voters get fired up giving Trump a better chance at election
2. No actual vote on the nominee so that battleground republicans do not have to be on the record
3. Stimulus passes.

If stimulus passes here is what I see having happened

1. SJC nominee goes forward
2. Pelosi gets everything she wants in stimulus bill for big $ including national mail in voting — ultimate horse trade

Given closeness to election & Covid factor Nancy has the high ground here

If Rs want to push through to have court for a generation here is what I see having happened

1. Rs came to conclusion can’t win pres election anyway
2. Trump is sacrificed
3. Focus shifts to trying to save senate to no avail
4. No stimulus deal

The question all comes down to what will R senators value more. SJC and a chance to win on the lawsuits later but having to fight against extremely high D turnout and a further suppressed R turnout or their jobs/power. I think it all comes down to what their internal polls say

I think the following is one end result:

1. A Nom. IS put forward but there is an agreement not to vote on it until after election. This will fire up the base and ensure high R turnout
2. LARGE stimulus passes with national mail in voting procedures. Nancy has the high ground

3. Rs up for re-election in battleground states defect for political cover to try to retain Senate

4. Continuing resolution passes.

Everyone agrees to let the people decide the outcome

Here is the OPPOSITE narrative

1. Republicans jam Nom through in a literal “pack the court” initiative
2. No stimulus of any type and a likely government shut down through the election as CR held hostage
3. Rs lose BIG as Ds turn out in huge #s
4. Potential real civil war

IMO the Ds maintain a giant advantage in this unfolding drama. If Rs pack the court before election Ds will likely win Sen and P and can go FDR mode on the court. Similarly if they get stim with mail in voting the justice issue is moot as they will own P and Sen for generations

This is exciting stuff for history and political junkies like me — but can be scary and overwhelming. This will hopefully all work out and I believe democracy will prevail but the next few months will be unbelievably tumultuous. I advise stock piles of food water guns and ammo.