The #belarus opposition are desperate to NOT get dragged into geopolitical standoff btwn west & #russia but linking bel sanctions & Rus ones will do exactly that. It also not only drives #lukashenko into kremlin arms but also means Rus will double down in bel story. /1 https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1307106824341069827

#belarus opposition position as I understand it is to ask for west solidarity & personal sanctions on #lukashenko et al are ok but geopolitically motivates ones make things worse.

#tikhanovskaya et al remain confident the ppl can oust Luka & will do. /2

#belarus opposition have also made it very clear they want friendly relations with #russia. They realise the only real source of not just trade but investment will come from Moscow not London or Frankfurt. Means a new govt is going to have to deal with oligarchs. /3

Let #russia oligarchs come. They can be managed by legit govt. Uralkali & belkali were in partnership for years in potash cartel. It’s already been shown to work

We only 1 month into this. Econ will run out of money in next 2 months. It’s still way too early for big sanctions

As final thought shld add #kolesnikova specifically said coordination council has no intention of withdraw from #lukashenko Union State deal with #russia that creates “rublezone.” deepen econ intergration & Single currency with rus. Idk if it’s personal or official policy of CC