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(Thread) 1/n Fixed assets investments (FAI) i.e. Residential and Commercial Real Estate, Factories, Infrastructure (roads, ports, airports, waterways, schools, hospitals) is a key driver of growth - see the correlation.
Low FAI today means lower capacity for future growth
Low FAI today means lower capacity for future growth
2/n
Government contribution to FAI has reduced over time. Hence, growth has to come from the household and private sector.
So to boost growth, there is no option but to boost real estate sector and encourage private sector to create manufacturing capacity and infrastructure
Government contribution to FAI has reduced over time. Hence, growth has to come from the household and private sector.
So to boost growth, there is no option but to boost real estate sector and encourage private sector to create manufacturing capacity and infrastructure
3/n
Most Asian economies like Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia had 10-20 years of high-growth & investment phases which created huge physical assets
Most of them had ATLEAST one BIG 10-20 year (growth on Steroids) BOOM followed by a BUST e.g. Japan in 1980s, Asian Tigers in 1990s
Most Asian economies like Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia had 10-20 years of high-growth & investment phases which created huge physical assets
Most of them had ATLEAST one BIG 10-20 year (growth on Steroids) BOOM followed by a BUST e.g. Japan in 1980s, Asian Tigers in 1990s
4/n
The BOOMs created so much manufacturing and infrastructure capacity that even after the bust, the countries’ overall income level and prosperity remained PERMANENTLY higher than before
The BOOMs created so much manufacturing and infrastructure capacity that even after the bust, the countries’ overall income level and prosperity remained PERMANENTLY higher than before
5/n
Malaysia Thailand China etc. have achieved 5000-10000 USD GDP per-capita, while they were equal to or poorer than India 30-40 years ago.
More recently, Bangladesh Vietnam have also overtaken India in growth
India is still around 2200 USD GDP per-capita
Malaysia Thailand China etc. have achieved 5000-10000 USD GDP per-capita, while they were equal to or poorer than India 30-40 years ago.
More recently, Bangladesh Vietnam have also overtaken India in growth
India is still around 2200 USD GDP per-capita
6/n
Thus India needs to invest in a big way to create a current account and trade balance. Without this there cannot be job creation and employment.
Consumption and services cannot remain the dominant drivers of growth. We need to produce what we consume, not keep importing
Thus India needs to invest in a big way to create a current account and trade balance. Without this there cannot be job creation and employment.
Consumption and services cannot remain the dominant drivers of growth. We need to produce what we consume, not keep importing
7/n
India INVESTMENT as a % of GDP remains in the 25-30% range.
Most of the manufacturing powerhouses have taken it to 30-40% during their high-growth phases in the 1980s and 1990s.
China’s Investment/ GDP is over 40-50% for the past decade
India INVESTMENT as a % of GDP remains in the 25-30% range.
Most of the manufacturing powerhouses have taken it to 30-40% during their high-growth phases in the 1980s and 1990s.
China’s Investment/ GDP is over 40-50% for the past decade
8/n
Money/Capital is not a problem in today’s world of zero and negative interest rates. The world wants India to succeed
We need to go for a growth mindset. Mindset should be that of plenty, not scarcity.
The only constraints to our growth are internal, not external
Money/Capital is not a problem in today’s world of zero and negative interest rates. The world wants India to succeed
We need to go for a growth mindset. Mindset should be that of plenty, not scarcity.
The only constraints to our growth are internal, not external
9/n
The solution is to reduce complexities of law, taxation, regulations and the mindset of suspicion towards domestic private enterprise and foreigners.
Bureaucracy, political leadership and the private sector have to work in tandem like in Korea, China etc. https://twitter.com/chokhani_manish/status/1287239415496970240
The solution is to reduce complexities of law, taxation, regulations and the mindset of suspicion towards domestic private enterprise and foreigners.
Bureaucracy, political leadership and the private sector have to work in tandem like in Korea, China etc. https://twitter.com/chokhani_manish/status/1287239415496970240
10/n
Rules and law should be simple, decisions quick and fair. That is the only way to speed up investments
Quick approvals,tax breaks, effective legal system, simple labor laws, export incentives, land availability, ease of business, localize imports are the areas to work on
Rules and law should be simple, decisions quick and fair. That is the only way to speed up investments
Quick approvals,tax breaks, effective legal system, simple labor laws, export incentives, land availability, ease of business, localize imports are the areas to work on
11/n
As a country we know these solutions since long but somewhere down the line implementation/ execution got bogged down and the “Make in India” initiative went to the background.
Now is the best moment to re-vitalize this concept
As a country we know these solutions since long but somewhere down the line implementation/ execution got bogged down and the “Make in India” initiative went to the background.
Now is the best moment to re-vitalize this concept
12/n
Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia are rapidly scaling up exports and taking all measures to attract local and foreign investments which are strategically moving away from China. Our actions need to have a greater sense of urgency.
Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia are rapidly scaling up exports and taking all measures to attract local and foreign investments which are strategically moving away from China. Our actions need to have a greater sense of urgency.
13/13
The armed forces defend our physical borders. But maintaining physical security also needs economic might
We the People, Government, Judiciary, Bureaucracy, Industrialists, Business, Workers, Farmers, Intellectuals, Media - all need to focus on strengthening the economy
The armed forces defend our physical borders. But maintaining physical security also needs economic might
We the People, Government, Judiciary, Bureaucracy, Industrialists, Business, Workers, Farmers, Intellectuals, Media - all need to focus on strengthening the economy
