There’s no chance a justice won’t be confirmed if 50 votes for him/her.

With 53 seats, very unlikely there won’t be 50. Even if Collins/Murkowski bail, need 2 more.

Likely result: new GOP justice, Dems get Senate, probability filibuster goes to pack court goes up.

2020, man.

To be clear, I think packing the court is pretty big underdog—it will be unpopular, and I doubt Dems will have 50 votes for it, given what moderate Dems in the Senate will look like if they gain control.

But if it was a 5% chance before RGB died, it’s some multiple of that now.

I mean, the coalition you are looking for if you are the Dems is Collins, Murkowski, Romney, and Alexander. It’s almost vaguely plausible if you put the blinders on.

Don’t get your hopes up, folks.

There’s this idea out there that Loeffler and Graham and Gardner and McSally and Daines will be electorally terrified of confirming a justice and might buckle.

Anything’s possible! But the current partisan context makes them much more scared to *block* a justice at this point.

The question you have to ask yourself is this:

What swing/Dem votes do I gain by blocking this? (Very few)

What GOP votes do I lose if I block this? (Enough to sink me)

It’s not particularly complicated.

It’s important to remember that the confirming of conservative justices is among the highest of GOP priorities. Not Trump priorities, *Republican* priorities. If they didn’t buckle in their defense of Trump, they are even less likely to buckle in defense of GOP top priorities.