1. Cases

1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the & #39;two waves& #39; are not comparable.

Source: Gov dashboard https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases...

1. Cases

1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need & NHS) cases and % positive. Again, bear in mind that the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so. Positivity currently 1.6%

Source: PHE covid surveillance report
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919092/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

2. Care home outbreaks

*Critical data*. In week 37 there were 10x more outbreaks in care homes than in food outlets and restaurants; interventions targeted at the latter would be pointless.

Source: weekly PHE report as above

3. Hospital deaths and admissions

Deaths from NHS England stats: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Admissions">https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic... (total & recent) & covid patients on ventilators (predictor of deaths): https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcar...

4. Triage

111 covid triage should be an excellent lead indicator of hospital admissions, *particularly* for the aged 70+

Thrown off this week by school / college kids seeking tests, but already falling back. No significant increase in 70+

https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/mi-potential-covid-19-symptoms-reported-through-nhs-pathways-and-111-online/latest">https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-...

5. Incidence / prevalence

Infection rate increasing in the young, but not in the elderly. Fantastic news - the faster the virus passes through the young / healthy, the sooner it will pass over the elderly / vulnerable.

Still *far* below epidemic level

#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales18september2020 #age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepop...

6. Mortality

COVID-19 was the 24th most common cause of death this week, with August covid deaths 98.8% lower than April. Year to date mortality is at 2009 levels, and deaths have been below average since end May.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/august2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepop... href=" https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/918708/National_influence_report_17_September_2020_week_38.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen..." title="6. MortalityCOVID-19 was the 24th most common cause of death this week, with August covid deaths 98.8% lower than April. Year to date mortality is at 2009 levels, and deaths have been below average since end May. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepop... href=" https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/918708/National_influence_report_17_September_2020_week_38.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...">

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen..." title="6. MortalityCOVID-19 was the 24th most common cause of death this week, with August covid deaths 98.8% lower than April. Year to date mortality is at 2009 levels, and deaths have been below average since end May. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepop... href=" https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/918708/National_influence_report_17_September_2020_week_38.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...">

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen..." title="6. MortalityCOVID-19 was the 24th most common cause of death this week, with August covid deaths 98.8% lower than April. Year to date mortality is at 2009 levels, and deaths have been below average since end May. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepop... href=" https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/918708/National_influence_report_17_September_2020_week_38.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...">

7. Miscellaneous

7.1 *Huge* spike in rhinovirus (colds) diagnoses this week, couldn& #39;t have come at a worse time for worried parents to confuse with covid symptoms, hence the strain on testing

Source: covid surveillance report

7. Miscellaneous

7.2 Contact tracing still seems to mostly take the place of positive test recipients just telling their housemates and guests they tested positive!

Source: PHE surveillance report