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1. Cases
1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.
Source: Gov dashboard https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
1a. Pillars 1&2 - last couple of weeks & last month (current wave) & full curve. Bear in mind the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side far less so: the 'two waves' are not comparable.
Source: Gov dashboard https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
1. Cases
1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need & NHS) cases and % positive. Again, bear in mind that the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so. Positivity currently 1.6%
Source: PHE covid surveillance report
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919092/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf
1b. English pillar 1 (clinical need & NHS) cases and % positive. Again, bear in mind that the left-hand side was heavily rationed for testing, the right-hand side *far* less so. Positivity currently 1.6%
Source: PHE covid surveillance report
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919092/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf
2. Care home outbreaks
*Critical data*. In week 37 there were 10x more outbreaks in care homes than in food outlets and restaurants; interventions targeted at the latter would be pointless.
Source: weekly PHE report as above
*Critical data*. In week 37 there were 10x more outbreaks in care homes than in food outlets and restaurants; interventions targeted at the latter would be pointless.
Source: weekly PHE report as above
3. Hospital deaths and admissions
Deaths from NHS England stats: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Admissions (total & recent) & covid patients on ventilators (predictor of deaths): https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
Deaths from NHS England stats: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Admissions (total & recent) & covid patients on ventilators (predictor of deaths): https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
4. Triage
111 covid triage should be an excellent lead indicator of hospital admissions, *particularly* for the aged 70+
Thrown off this week by school / college kids seeking tests, but already falling back. No significant increase in 70+
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/mi-potential-covid-19-symptoms-reported-through-nhs-pathways-and-111-online/latest
111 covid triage should be an excellent lead indicator of hospital admissions, *particularly* for the aged 70+
Thrown off this week by school / college kids seeking tests, but already falling back. No significant increase in 70+
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/mi-potential-covid-19-symptoms-reported-through-nhs-pathways-and-111-online/latest
5. Incidence / prevalence
Infection rate increasing in the young, but not in the elderly. Fantastic news - the faster the virus passes through the young / healthy, the sooner it will pass over the elderly / vulnerable.
Still *far* below epidemic level
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales18september2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
Infection rate increasing in the young, but not in the elderly. Fantastic news - the faster the virus passes through the young / healthy, the sooner it will pass over the elderly / vulnerable.
Still *far* below epidemic level
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales18september2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
6. Mortality
COVID-19 was the 24th most common cause of death this week, with August covid deaths 98.8% lower than April. Year to date mortality is at 2009 levels, and deaths have been below average since end May.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/august2020
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/918708/National_influence_report_17_September_2020_week_38.pdf
COVID-19 was the 24th most common cause of death this week, with August covid deaths 98.8% lower than April. Year to date mortality is at 2009 levels, and deaths have been below average since end May.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/august2020
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/918708/National_influence_report_17_September_2020_week_38.pdf
7. Miscellaneous
7.1 *Huge* spike in rhinovirus (colds) diagnoses this week, couldn't have come at a worse time for worried parents to confuse with covid symptoms, hence the strain on testing
Source: covid surveillance report
7.1 *Huge* spike in rhinovirus (colds) diagnoses this week, couldn't have come at a worse time for worried parents to confuse with covid symptoms, hence the strain on testing
Source: covid surveillance report
7. Miscellaneous
7.2 Contact tracing still seems to mostly take the place of positive test recipients just telling their housemates and guests they tested positive!
Source: PHE surveillance report
7.2 Contact tracing still seems to mostly take the place of positive test recipients just telling their housemates and guests they tested positive!
Source: PHE surveillance report
