Ok this is pretty huge: the NYT says that if polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump will win. This means we should actually assume Biden is losing, not winning. The lead is a mirage based on assuming that the exact same thing we’ve already seen can happen will not happen.

That is BEFORE factoring in additional wrongness that could come from difference between Biden choosing not to do any canvassing and Trump doing a ton of it.

People who assume Biden is ahead are lying to themselves. Unless we immediately change things assume he’ll lose.

I do not want to hear from any of you people who go “Well Actually We Fixed The Polls” by counting fewer students or whatever. Don’t give me that bullshit. You have no idea if the polls will be less wrong. And we need to operate on the assumption that chance of error is the same.

Poll Guys are the worst guys. I spent 2016 arguing with them and now I am spending 2020 arguing with them. They are incapable of self doubt. They are incapable of wondering if maybe they’ve overlooked something. No, they’re sure they know every factor that might matter.