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i'd like to use sweden and illinois to tie several concepts together.
the two are similar size, density, and population.
illinois locked down and wore masks. sweden did not.
sweden counts covid deaths more aggressively. this should give advantage to IL.
they still lost.
the two are similar size, density, and population.
illinois locked down and wore masks. sweden did not.
sweden counts covid deaths more aggressively. this should give advantage to IL.
they still lost.
governor pritzger's experiment in pseudoscience has yielded 17% more deaths per capita than sweden's adherence to longstanding pandemic guidelines.
we can use google mobility data to see the quantitative difference in their lockdowns.
IL locked down 3X has hard as sweden.
we can use google mobility data to see the quantitative difference in their lockdowns.
IL locked down 3X has hard as sweden.
sweden was back to normal by mid april.
Illinois took until mid june.
neither showed any correlation whatsoever between lockdowns/reopening and deaths.
here we see sweden (who reports real day of death data) and their smooth, gompertz style curve
Illinois took until mid june.
neither showed any correlation whatsoever between lockdowns/reopening and deaths.
here we see sweden (who reports real day of death data) and their smooth, gompertz style curve
here we see Illinois, who do not report real day of death but rather day of report.
this makes their data a bit choppier and prone to artifacts.
their curve looks steeper, not flatter, but i'm not sure the data is good enough to draw a strong conclusion from that.
this makes their data a bit choppier and prone to artifacts.
their curve looks steeper, not flatter, but i'm not sure the data is good enough to draw a strong conclusion from that.
but there is another very distinct feature in the IL data that is lacking in the swedish: the tail stopped running down.
IL broke the gompertz shape in late july and has continued at a level around 1.6-1.8 deaths/day/mm.
this is highly suspicious.
IL broke the gompertz shape in late july and has continued at a level around 1.6-1.8 deaths/day/mm.
this is highly suspicious.
biology does not run in straight lines.
what DOES run in straight lines is a set of fixed probabilistic outcomes iterated over a large sample set, say, for example, a test with an N% false positive rate run across a large number of deaths. https://twitter.com/Dierenbach/status/1306474718854217730?s=20
what DOES run in straight lines is a set of fixed probabilistic outcomes iterated over a large sample set, say, for example, a test with an N% false positive rate run across a large number of deaths. https://twitter.com/Dierenbach/status/1306474718854217730?s=20
the illinois DPH says that about 310 people a day die from all causes in IL.
IL is currently reporting 23.7 covid deaths/day over last 7
it's been pancake flat.
this is roughly 7.6% of all deaths.
epidemiologically, there is just no way this is that constant.
IL is currently reporting 23.7 covid deaths/day over last 7
it's been pancake flat.
this is roughly 7.6% of all deaths.
epidemiologically, there is just no way this is that constant.
could the false positive/residual positive rate really be that high?
we've all seen this. PCR tests run at 40 cycles are staggeringly sensitive.
that's 1000X the amplification of 30 cycles.
it easily picks up virus/viral fragments from months ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html
we've all seen this. PCR tests run at 40 cycles are staggeringly sensitive.
that's 1000X the amplification of 30 cycles.
it easily picks up virus/viral fragments from months ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html
more detail on this issue here.
but even if this were so, you'd expect to see some drop over time (though perhaps the time has not been long enough yet?) https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1299748993296216071?s=20
but even if this were so, you'd expect to see some drop over time (though perhaps the time has not been long enough yet?) https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1299748993296216071?s=20
but these tests looks to have significant false positives as well.
the sensitivity and specificity in lab tests for spec is not real. it's gauged against clear + and - samples, not all the weird stuff you find in the real world.
those can be trickier and more prone to error.
the sensitivity and specificity in lab tests for spec is not real. it's gauged against clear + and - samples, not all the weird stuff you find in the real world.
those can be trickier and more prone to error.
i've seen numbers from 2% to 8% on false positive rates.
this could be a big deal.
the question is "why would you test every single death?"
the answer, as is so often the case, is "follow the money."
massive funding in the US has gone to covid.
this could be a big deal.
the question is "why would you test every single death?"
the answer, as is so often the case, is "follow the money."
massive funding in the US has gone to covid.
any COV death gets state money, hospital money, doctor money, etc. it can double and triple the payout to a hospital for a patient.
rule of economics: when you subsidize something, you get more of it.
and we are subsidizing covid cases, covid hospitalization, and covid death.
rule of economics: when you subsidize something, you get more of it.
and we are subsidizing covid cases, covid hospitalization, and covid death.
this need not be a conspiracy. it's just a policy blunder.
these federal funds ARE the problem.
imagine you're a hospital, teetering on the edge of solvency because you've not been allowed to do elective procedures.
imagine there are buckets of money for finding covid.
these federal funds ARE the problem.
imagine you're a hospital, teetering on the edge of solvency because you've not been allowed to do elective procedures.
imagine there are buckets of money for finding covid.
what would you do?
would you test everyone repeatedly? would you choose the most sensitive, over amplified test you could find?
if you were a testing co and making roughly $90 million a day in US cov testing revs, ($33bn/yr) would you not be thrilled to comply?
would you test everyone repeatedly? would you choose the most sensitive, over amplified test you could find?
if you were a testing co and making roughly $90 million a day in US cov testing revs, ($33bn/yr) would you not be thrilled to comply?
the fundamental axiom of economics is "people respond to incentives in predictable ways"
this is utterly predictable
this federal gravy train has created a whole industry to drill for gravy and to identify the maximum possible number of cases and deaths even if they're not real
this is utterly predictable
this federal gravy train has created a whole industry to drill for gravy and to identify the maximum possible number of cases and deaths even if they're not real
it's leading to situations like illinois (and i am sure this is playing out in other places as well) where we can NEVER get out from under reported covid because we're literally paying people to be sure we can't.
perhaps we should stop.
food for thought...
perhaps we should stop.
food for thought...
