I'm seeing a lot more people talking about the white evangelical vote and if/how/why the proportion of people in this segment who voted for Trump will change.

Don't bet on this. At all.

A quick thread with graphs.

White evangelicals will not stay home. Even as their numbers have declined, their impact on elections has increased disproportionately to their size.

They are overrepresented by 10% because they vote reliably. They voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump. They will do so again.

Why? We can talk about economics, race, etc... I think a lot of it has to do with abortion.

Abortion, to me, is the last true wedge issue that the GOP can exploit to maximize turnout & loyalty among this group. Democrats use it with less effect, but it's working as a wedge.

Views on abortion have remained nearly unchanged since Roe.

This is bonkers compared to other issues, including...

...marijuana legalization

...same-sex marriage

.... and even gun rights have changed long-term, albeit in a way that serves GOP interests in the last two decades.

Evangelicals aren't stupid and they play the long game. They obviously care about more than abortion. But, wedges force hands.

They know they can't win the abortion battle legislatively. They have to win through courts. The pursestrings to the courts hang with the president.

If you don't want to see Trump elected, the good news is that this group of people continues to decline. But they are winning the turnout game.

A more reliable hope than convincing a white evangelical to change their mind is to get the 85% that's underrepresented to vote.

Register to vote. Then vote. And then make sure everyone you know votes. And vote by mail if you can, because it's awesome. https://vote.gov/