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As someone who has a bit of experience working in the Hispanic vote space, I& #39;ve been intrigued by the stories about Biden struggling a bit with Hispanics.
To be honest I was skeptical given Trump& #39;s record, but let& #39;s take a look. (Short thread).
To be honest I was skeptical given Trump& #39;s record, but let& #39;s take a look. (Short thread).
First, the heavily Mexican-American parts of the US have seen a huge swing towards Dems since Trump took over the GOP. In & #39;18 Ds had big Congressional wins in SW, West. CO, NM no longer targeted states, NV holding, AZ leaning D, TX in play. Big change. https://www.ndn.org/blog/2019/02/notes-gops-erosion-southwest">https://www.ndn.org/blog/2019...
Next, Dems had one of their best showings with Hispanics in the modern era in 2018, winning by 40 points in the House races, 69-29. HRC won them by 38 points in 2016, 66-28.
Dems also had their best showing with young people in the modern era in 2018. https://ndn.org/blog/2018/11/among-new-coalition-voters-democrats-have-best-performance-ever">https://ndn.org/blog/2018...
Dems also had their best showing with young people in the modern era in 2018. https://ndn.org/blog/2018/11/among-new-coalition-voters-democrats-have-best-performance-ever">https://ndn.org/blog/2018...
Where things didn& #39;t go so well was in Florida. Dem candidates dramatically underperformed in Florida with Hispanics in 2018, while improving everywhere else.
The Florida Hispanic electorate is unique, and shouldn& #39;t be lumped in w/other states. https://www.ndn.org/blog/2018/11/all-important-florida-democrats-lose-ground-hispanic-voters">https://www.ndn.org/blog/2018...
The Florida Hispanic electorate is unique, and shouldn& #39;t be lumped in w/other states. https://www.ndn.org/blog/2018/11/all-important-florida-democrats-lose-ground-hispanic-voters">https://www.ndn.org/blog/2018...
Polling Hispanics is very hard, and many national polls have small subsamples, or don& #39;t use bi-lingual phoners. So I think the best way to gauge what& #39;s happening here is to look at the 3 Presidential states with large Hispanic populations - AZ, FL and NV.
Let& #39;s start with AZ. Clinton won Hispanics in 2016 61-31 (30 pts). In a new @EquisResearch poll Biden leads Trump 62-29 (33 pts), and a new Monmouth poll out today has him up 63-33 with Hispanics.
So, Biden is about where Clinton was in 2016. https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1305677650434961408">https://twitter.com/lbarronlo...
So, Biden is about where Clinton was in 2016. https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1305677650434961408">https://twitter.com/lbarronlo...
Florida. Clinton won Hispanics 62-35 (27 pts) in 2016, and the Dem nominee for gov won them 54-44 in 2018 (ugh).
The new Monmouth poll has Biden leading 58-32 with Hispanics, a margin similar to Clinton& #39;s in 2016. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_fl_091520/">https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-i...
The new Monmouth poll has Biden leading 58-32 with Hispanics, a margin similar to Clinton& #39;s in 2016. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_fl_091520/">https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-i...
Not a lot of NV data right now, but the 1 poll we have from NYT/Siena suggests Biden could be underperforming there. His non-white share is lower than Clinton 2016, and he& #39;s only up there statewide 46-42.
Campaign was wise to start advertising there. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-wisconsin-minnesota.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/1...
Campaign was wise to start advertising there. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-wisconsin-minnesota.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/1...
So, this doesn& #39;t feel like Biden has a "big problem" with Hispanics. He& #39;s tracking Clinton in AZ, FL and leading in both states; TX is in play; CO, NM aren& #39;t. It& #39;s possible he has work to do in NV, but the campaign seems to be addressing it now.
A few final points. Should Biden be doing better given how much COVID has ravaged the Hispanic community, Trump& #39;s racism? Perhaps, but the general election campaign has just begun. Let& #39;s see what they can do - their new Spanish FL ads this week look smart. https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/politics/biden-campaign-ad-spending/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/1...
