Read on Twitter
As someone who has a bit of experience working in the Hispanic vote space, I've been intrigued by the stories about Biden struggling a bit with Hispanics.
To be honest I was skeptical given Trump's record, but let's take a look. (Short thread).
To be honest I was skeptical given Trump's record, but let's take a look. (Short thread).
First, the heavily Mexican-American parts of the US have seen a huge swing towards Dems since Trump took over the GOP. In '18 Ds had big Congressional wins in SW, West. CO, NM no longer targeted states, NV holding, AZ leaning D, TX in play. Big change. https://www.ndn.org/blog/2019/02/notes-gops-erosion-southwest
Next, Dems had one of their best showings with Hispanics in the modern era in 2018, winning by 40 points in the House races, 69-29. HRC won them by 38 points in 2016, 66-28.
Dems also had their best showing with young people in the modern era in 2018. https://ndn.org/blog/2018/11/among-new-coalition-voters-democrats-have-best-performance-ever
Dems also had their best showing with young people in the modern era in 2018. https://ndn.org/blog/2018/11/among-new-coalition-voters-democrats-have-best-performance-ever
Where things didn't go so well was in Florida. Dem candidates dramatically underperformed in Florida with Hispanics in 2018, while improving everywhere else.
The Florida Hispanic electorate is unique, and shouldn't be lumped in w/other states. https://www.ndn.org/blog/2018/11/all-important-florida-democrats-lose-ground-hispanic-voters
The Florida Hispanic electorate is unique, and shouldn't be lumped in w/other states. https://www.ndn.org/blog/2018/11/all-important-florida-democrats-lose-ground-hispanic-voters
Polling Hispanics is very hard, and many national polls have small subsamples, or don't use bi-lingual phoners. So I think the best way to gauge what's happening here is to look at the 3 Presidential states with large Hispanic populations - AZ, FL and NV.
Let's start with AZ. Clinton won Hispanics in 2016 61-31 (30 pts). In a new @EquisResearch poll Biden leads Trump 62-29 (33 pts), and a new Monmouth poll out today has him up 63-33 with Hispanics.
So, Biden is about where Clinton was in 2016. https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1305677650434961408
So, Biden is about where Clinton was in 2016. https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1305677650434961408
Florida. Clinton won Hispanics 62-35 (27 pts) in 2016, and the Dem nominee for gov won them 54-44 in 2018 (ugh).
The new Monmouth poll has Biden leading 58-32 with Hispanics, a margin similar to Clinton's in 2016. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_fl_091520/
The new Monmouth poll has Biden leading 58-32 with Hispanics, a margin similar to Clinton's in 2016. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_fl_091520/
Not a lot of NV data right now, but the 1 poll we have from NYT/Siena suggests Biden could be underperforming there. His non-white share is lower than Clinton 2016, and he's only up there statewide 46-42.
Campaign was wise to start advertising there. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-wisconsin-minnesota.html
Campaign was wise to start advertising there. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-wisconsin-minnesota.html
So, this doesn't feel like Biden has a "big problem" with Hispanics. He's tracking Clinton in AZ, FL and leading in both states; TX is in play; CO, NM aren't. It's possible he has work to do in NV, but the campaign seems to be addressing it now.
A few final points. Should Biden be doing better given how much COVID has ravaged the Hispanic community, Trump's racism? Perhaps, but the general election campaign has just begun. Let's see what they can do - their new Spanish FL ads this week look smart. https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/politics/biden-campaign-ad-spending/index.html
