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Professor Neil Ferguson Deep Dive
"Professor Lockdown", as he's nicknamed in some newspapers, is back in the public space and offering his scientific opinions on public health policy
As such, let's take a look at Neil and his most important work on pandemics - including C19
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"Professor Lockdown", as he's nicknamed in some newspapers, is back in the public space and offering his scientific opinions on public health policy
As such, let's take a look at Neil and his most important work on pandemics - including C19
1
Who is Neil Ferguson?
He was the Imperial College epidemiologist who presented the doomsday scenario to U.K. leaders
He predicted that 550K would die in UK and 2.2M in the US if lockdown measures were not undertaken promptly
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He was the Imperial College epidemiologist who presented the doomsday scenario to U.K. leaders
He predicted that 550K would die in UK and 2.2M in the US if lockdown measures were not undertaken promptly
2
Lockdowns were never a part of any rational pandemic playbook
As I tweeted: "Lockdown is not a strategy, it’s a panic move"
Yet governments accepted his predictive modeling without criticism
How did Ferguson manage to convince the world to shut down?
3 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1305917116609167361?s=20
As I tweeted: "Lockdown is not a strategy, it’s a panic move"
Yet governments accepted his predictive modeling without criticism
How did Ferguson manage to convince the world to shut down?
3 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1305917116609167361?s=20
In 2001, Ferguson made incredible predictions about the UK’s foot and mouth disease outbreak
His research led to the culling of 11M sheep and cattle
Estimated 10B pound damage to UK economy
Other epidemiologists were critical but the govt followed his lead
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His research led to the culling of 11M sheep and cattle
Estimated 10B pound damage to UK economy
Other epidemiologists were critical but the govt followed his lead
4
In 2002, there was a predicted outbreak of BSE (aka mad cow disease)
Ferguson predicted between 50-55,000 people would possibly succumb
He later stated that up to 150K could die if certain conditions occurred
Ultimately, only 177 died
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Ferguson predicted between 50-55,000 people would possibly succumb
He later stated that up to 150K could die if certain conditions occurred
Ultimately, only 177 died
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In 2005, Ferguson predicted that 150M (up to 200M) could die of bird flu
Ultimately, <300 people died
Hmm, anybody seeing a trend?
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Ultimately, <300 people died
Hmm, anybody seeing a trend?
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When asked by The Guardian about this, he replied that “~40M died during the 1918 Spanish flu. There are 6x as many people now so you could scale it up to ~200M probably.”
7 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke
7 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke
In 2009, Ferguson worked on swine flu predictions for the UK govt
His modeling suggested ~65K deaths
Ultimately, ~450
His team had estimated an IFR or 0.3-1.5% (Neil’s best guess 0.4%) when it was later determined to be 0.026%
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His modeling suggested ~65K deaths
Ultimately, ~450
His team had estimated an IFR or 0.3-1.5% (Neil’s best guess 0.4%) when it was later determined to be 0.026%
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In 2020, Ferguson prepared his COVID model for the UK
The UK was faced with a novel coronavirus, very little hard information, the potential of 550K deaths, and overwhelming of the NHS
They blinked and accepted Ferguson’s predictions with little criticism
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The UK was faced with a novel coronavirus, very little hard information, the potential of 550K deaths, and overwhelming of the NHS
They blinked and accepted Ferguson’s predictions with little criticism
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@SunetraGupta (epidemiologist at Oxford) was livid that the UK accepted Ferguson’s model with so little debate and has been a staunch critic throughout
She recently said that ‘puritanical’ criticism of idea of herd immunity has chilled legitimate scientific and policy debate
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She recently said that ‘puritanical’ criticism of idea of herd immunity has chilled legitimate scientific and policy debate
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Ferguson was later forced to resign from his position due to an affair he was continuing during UK’s lockdown
He was infected with COVID at the time and knowingly exposed the woman and her husband & children
“Rules for thee but not for me.”
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He was infected with COVID at the time and knowingly exposed the woman and her husband & children
“Rules for thee but not for me.”
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George Box, renowned British statistician, famously said: “All models are wrong but some are useful”
Models are flawed
Helpful as guides and approximations
They should be applicable and never harmful
They are only as good as the data input and the built-in assumptions
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Models are flawed
Helpful as guides and approximations
They should be applicable and never harmful
They are only as good as the data input and the built-in assumptions
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Ferguson’s modeling was built on >13 year old code
It’s been described as SIMS without graphics
It was designed for flu and not COVID
He has been extremely reticent about releasing the code for examination
Those who have seen it have at best not given it any praise
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It’s been described as SIMS without graphics
It was designed for flu and not COVID
He has been extremely reticent about releasing the code for examination
Those who have seen it have at best not given it any praise
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The UK public policy decisions of lockdown and severe mitigation were based on this modeling
The base assumptions for the policies have taken on an almost religious dogma
Any researcher or work that challenges the assumptions is attacked or ignored
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The base assumptions for the policies have taken on an almost religious dogma
Any researcher or work that challenges the assumptions is attacked or ignored
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Respected physician scientist researchers have had their reputations attacked and their motives impugned
Research/papers have not been accepted or are held to higher standards bc of their potential to challenge the public health policies and the public’s reception of them
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Research/papers have not been accepted or are held to higher standards bc of their potential to challenge the public health policies and the public’s reception of them
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Example, respected epidemiologist Dr. John Ionaddis and his team in Stanford attempted to get a seroprevalence snapshot early in the pandemic
They fully realized that they would be proceeding with a shoestring budget but felt it was worthwhile to proceed
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They fully realized that they would be proceeding with a shoestring budget but felt it was worthwhile to proceed
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Their AB tests were primitive
Their volunteer recruitment wasn't ideal given the circumstances
Their data suggested IFR was likely ~0.2-0.3%
They were savaged in the media - sterling reputations attacked.
Ultimately?
Their IFR prediction has been ~ right 5-6 months later
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Their volunteer recruitment wasn't ideal given the circumstances
Their data suggested IFR was likely ~0.2-0.3%
They were savaged in the media - sterling reputations attacked.
Ultimately?
Their IFR prediction has been ~ right 5-6 months later
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Another couldn't get her paper published- not due to flaws/lack of substance/academic rigor
Nope, her paper needed to meet even higher standards because of it's effect on:
1) public health policy
2) the public’s Response to public health policy
Chew on that for a second
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Nope, her paper needed to meet even higher standards because of it's effect on:
1) public health policy
2) the public’s Response to public health policy
Chew on that for a second
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Anyway
Neil Ferguson is back!
His hubris is quite intact
He was on British television this past week...
Making the rounds...
Telling people that they likely would need to experience more lockdowns soon
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8718065/Professor-Lockdown-Neil-Ferguson-tells-people-hesitate-against-rushing-work.html
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Neil Ferguson is back!
His hubris is quite intact
He was on British television this past week...
Making the rounds...
Telling people that they likely would need to experience more lockdowns soon
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8718065/Professor-Lockdown-Neil-Ferguson-tells-people-hesitate-against-rushing-work.html
19
Meanwhile, the British government is encouraging people to get back to work
This embodiment of arrogance is telling them to stay home
Unfortunately many are taking his advice
20 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1304453237144195075?s=20
This embodiment of arrogance is telling them to stay home
Unfortunately many are taking his advice
20 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1304453237144195075?s=20
Throughout his career, Ferguson has made no apologies for his catastrophic predictions
It’s easy to stoke fear
And Much more difficulty to quell it
It’s much easier to get people out of the water by yelling shark than to convince them that it’s safe to get back in
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It’s easy to stoke fear
And Much more difficulty to quell it
It’s much easier to get people out of the water by yelling shark than to convince them that it’s safe to get back in
21
So there's Neil Ferguson in 20 tweets
This is his resume
Draw your own conclusions
But more importantly, ponder an earlier question:
"How did Ferguson manage to convince the world to shut down?"
It certainly wasn't his sterling resume of correct predictions...
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This is his resume
Draw your own conclusions
But more importantly, ponder an earlier question:
"How did Ferguson manage to convince the world to shut down?"
It certainly wasn't his sterling resume of correct predictions...
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This thread is not just about Neil Ferguson
It's also directed at scientists/experts who sought followers/likes by pushing the Ferguson panic narrative
Not naming names, but we know who they are
MSM is also complicit, only talking with scientist that confirm this narrative
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It's also directed at scientists/experts who sought followers/likes by pushing the Ferguson panic narrative
Not naming names, but we know who they are
MSM is also complicit, only talking with scientist that confirm this narrative
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Neil Ferguson didn't convince the whole world to shut down alone..he had lots of help
Problem is that the narrative was wrong
Each day brings more data, and so far it seems like the anti-panic scientists/experts were right
That's a problem - predictable result of no debate
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Problem is that the narrative was wrong
Each day brings more data, and so far it seems like the anti-panic scientists/experts were right
That's a problem - predictable result of no debate
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I don't blame them for being wrong
I blame them for not behaving like scientists: not challenging their assumptions, not engaging in sincere debate, not doing the work to evaluate all data...even if it contradicted their views
That's it!
If you liked please RT first tweet
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I blame them for not behaving like scientists: not challenging their assumptions, not engaging in sincere debate, not doing the work to evaluate all data...even if it contradicted their views
That's it!
If you liked please RT first tweet
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