It's difficult to take a step back... but that's what I'll try to do here. This is all about the Government's failings.

The thing which I think is getting to me is the trajectory. We need to think about how to fashion a political and popular response. Thread. 1/15

Let's start with Brexit. Think back to the promises made in the referendum, and the claims made when A50 was triggered. We would leave the EU and have a good deal outside. It was going to be easy. Or so we were told. 2/

It is now more than 4 years since the referendum. The Vote Leave team is in Govt. Since the GE win in Dec 2019, they have had the freedom to realise their Brexit plans. 3/

And yet... we still don't know whether there will be a deal with the EU, and we still don't know how the hard border which a hard Brexit entails will work (or, re the Irish border, where it will be). 4/

The Govt is seeking to blame others - remainers, the civil service, the EU - but it has no answers to the key questions, and is finding that incompatible promises are impossible to keep. 5/

Aspects of the Withdrawal Agreement are said by the PM to be 'a disaster' and there is now legislation to enable Ministers (or more likely MPs) to breach the UK's international commitments.

Global Britain is not making things easy for itself. 6/

Second, coronavirus. Lockdown was necessary to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed. It also bought us time to prepare for 'a second wave', with the reopening of schools, and the coming of winter. Time which the Govt has squandered. 7/

We need a fully-functioning test, trace and isolate system, which is able to identify those with symptoms quickly, so as to enable the spread of the disease to be slowed. As all the scientists have been saying for months now... 8/

Instead we have a system unable to meet demand, with no tests in many parts of the country, and delays in obtaining results (which will lead, inexorably, to a faster spread). And excitable promises about cures, vaccines, and 'moonshot' testing. 9/

Health and the economy have both suffered. The travel industry, care homes, the education sector and many more have been bewildered and angered by the Govt's haphazard response. 10/

On both Brexit and coronavirus, the Govt's performance has been abject.

And incompetence is allied with cronyism and corruption. There are lots of examples... including PPE procurement, NHS Test and Trace, the Barnard Castle saga, and many more. 11/

It feels to me as though this amounts to a major crisis, with the UK finding itself in a position I would not have imagined possible a couple of years ago.

And yet... 12/

The Govt is still polling well. Its claims that it is acting 'for the people' feel like they are wearing very thin, and yet it continues to enjoy the support of many. 13/

Incompetence and cronyism seem to be 'priced in'. They have lost the capacity to shock. Complaints about the rise in executive power and breaches of the rule of law are dismissed as the arcane preserve of bitter remainers. 14/

So... all this ends with a question. What is the best way to channel a popular and political response?

The time between now and the end of the year is absolutely crucial, both re Brexit, and re COVID. Tick tock. 15/15