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Nuclear war almost happened in August 2017.
What does this teach us about the causes of war?
Answer: That we still don't really know why war happens.
[THREAD] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/16/daily-202-us-came-much-closer-war-with-north-korea-2017-than-public-knew-trump-told-woodward/
What does this teach us about the causes of war?
Answer: That we still don't really know why war happens.
[THREAD] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/16/daily-202-us-came-much-closer-war-with-north-korea-2017-than-public-knew-trump-told-woodward/
Start with one of international relations primary models for war: bargaining theory
The idea is the following: since war is costly (think of all the millions of people Mattis feared would die in a 
war), states have an incentive to "strike a bargain" that avoids war.
war), states have an incentive to "strike a bargain" that avoids war.
But this doesn't always happen...with devastating consequences
Bargaining theory is really useful for understanding why a deal isn't reached. Reasons include (i) beliefs that the other side is bluffing about resolve/acceptable deals, or (ii) unwillingness to believe that the other side can stick to a deal. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/exploring-the-bargaining-model-of-war/0CD52D9B2684E7485A97F32D648F4926
Essentially, it treats the "road to war" as a game of poker
And it treats the "onset of war" as a really, really, really bad "exit option" from bargaining.
States often avoid this exit option, but sometimes don't.
States often avoid this exit option, but sometimes don't.
This is all well and good. But there is a problem:
Why does "exit option" == "Shooting one another"?
Why does "exit option" == "Shooting one another"?
Why can't the leaders find another type of costly action, such as economic sanctions? https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1747-7093.1999.tb00330.x?casa_token=BXgxjtWRUj4AAAAA%3A6DhXCIzq_hQk6Yw2ksncgYdUiAqvf7jQ8_Oe4QbJ7orNJexhk-kcbm6xMPlSewtIuscfmdlJvARsew
Or diplomatic ostracization? https://www.amazon.com/Forceful-Persuasion-Coercive-Diplomacy-Alternative/dp/1878379143
....or, I don't know, a rap battle?
In other words (and I know this is going to be controversial with folks), the bargaining model of war doesn't actually tell us why "war" happens. 
I'm not the first one to make this observation.
Erik Gartzke did years ago in @IntOrgJournal https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/war-is-in-the-error-term/45964C242DA8AFD93AFD2B1750FAF4D0
Erik Gartzke did years ago in @IntOrgJournal https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/war-is-in-the-error-term/45964C242DA8AFD93AFD2B1750FAF4D0
And Robert Powell wrote, "“The mechanisms are too general and too spare to explain particular outcomes in any degree of specificity.” https://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Power-Robert-Powell/dp/0691004579
This really shouldn't be surprising since the bargaining model of war is really just an extension of the models of labor disputes/strikes
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1811091?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1811091?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
My critique isn't limited to bargaining theory.
One could also say the same about "The Steps to War" explanation for war: it highlights "risk factors" but not the "mechanism" https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-275
One could also say the same about "The Steps to War" explanation for war: it highlights "risk factors" but not the "mechanism" https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-275
Or the "Security Dilemma": arming yourself out of fear of others' arms (for what ever reason that fear comes about) doesn't tell you when and why you start actually using those arms against one another (cc @JenniferMitzen) https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354066106067346
Or, similar to the security dilemma, the "Spiral Model" (cc @AHKydd) https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/world-politics/article/game-theory-and-the-spiral-model/3ED0EC9B80C83F4D10A1E55CA2EA5FD2
So we need to bring in ancillary theories to explain why the shooting begins. These are numerous.
There is "Preventive War" https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03050629.2011.546716?casa_token=LsF_mLW0w9YAAAAA:Zc6zy9nH50COe7eOY2Q-Caz7JXoUHXpEHK3Z-0EnLLcRXEJpAQlSTqeGq6isasElTloKss1FQX0
There is "Preventive War" https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03050629.2011.546716?casa_token=LsF_mLW0w9YAAAAA:Zc6zy9nH50COe7eOY2Q-Caz7JXoUHXpEHK3Z-0EnLLcRXEJpAQlSTqeGq6isasElTloKss1FQX0
There is "Performative War" (cc @ahsanib) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2019.1551567
There is "Diversionary War" (cc @kyle_e_haynes) https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0738894215593723?casa_token=qsbvGBLXydMAAAAA%3AaSVJ0BDnw-joASpepaExrcCRmT0kp9999Zelg3ftqkjmd41_QSlxtjfkd1edmw55Jjcq3O3rk5A
There is psychological bias, namely "overconfidence"
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00382_13.x?casa_token=6p-bbpTZRioAAAAA:JRW16wRQj8L2nZrDHtoJs0orFbgOWgUAFzMaAjFvkgvVQg7myD4Y0exzjKdtFtIfW5q7DG_Riw
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00382_13.x?casa_token=6p-bbpTZRioAAAAA:JRW16wRQj8L2nZrDHtoJs0orFbgOWgUAFzMaAjFvkgvVQg7myD4Y0exzjKdtFtIfW5q7DG_Riw
In short, we are fortunate that war was avoided in August 2017. The missiles of August 2017 could have been far more devastating than the guns of August 1914.
But why one August ended in "peace" and the other in "war" is still a puzzle to international relations scholars.
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But why one August ended in "peace" and the other in "war" is still a puzzle to international relations scholars.
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