Again I'm having to call out @rachelbaxendale's misrepresentation of Victorian covid data in her never ending campaign to blame second wave on Vic contact tracing failures, and in turn Dan Andrews. This time she's ignoring a key event in her comparison timeline. A thread

If you missed last installment of Murdoch media misrepresentation of covid data, you can catch up on it here. NSW international arrival figures were left in to skew contact tracing data results in NSW's favour. I showed Vic and NSW are indeed comparable. https://twitter.com/Vic_Rollison/status/1303268326836072448?s=20

This time @rachelbaxendale is claiming she's got smoking gun data to show Vic had more cases under investigation than NSW did when they reached 10 community transmission. But this data comparison misses a key difference between Vic and NSW. Vic went looking for undetected spread.

On this chart, I've added another column to show daily increase in cases being investigated (starting from 17 June). I've also highlighted all cases from 25 June onward in red because this was the date Vic went looking for undetected spread. And guess what - they found it!

Here is the Vic DHHS factsheet about their testing blitz in 10 hot spot suburbs - 'selected due to the high rates of recent community transmission, the risk of undetected coronavirus circulating in the community and the risk of
outbreaks occurring...' https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/202006/2001628_COVID-19_COVID-19%20suburban%20testing%20blitz.pdf

The thing is, when you just look at data, you're not getting all the info. I'm a qualitative and quantitative researcher. So when I see data, my first question is always 'why has that happened?'. You have to take into account the context, otherwise data on its own is meaningless.

The fact that Victoria went looking for spread in covid hotspots - they went door to door testing as many people as they could - means when they did find undetected spread, much of it had to be investigated because they had no idea where these people first caught covid.

You've noticed I often question why NSW aren't going into hot spot areas and testing proactively. I ask this because I saw what happened when Victoria proactively tested - they found undetected spread. Don't forget 40% cases asymptomatic. You test proactively, you find them. End