Acc. to FT German finance min. reached out to US Treasury sec. with an offer: GER would spend up to €1bn to subsidise construction of 2 LNG terminals (to receive US LNG), expecting US to drop its opposition to Nord Stream 2 [THREAD] 1/14

https://www.ft.com/content/3d028b63-31da-450e-ae73-13b25ecd0032 @financialtimes

1) This is understandable that Germany, makes such moves to defend NS2 (whether GER should defend NS2 is a different story). Germany assumed that it is possible to "make the deal" with Trump, who is driven by US economic interests, "America first", etc.

2/14

Germany has also tried it in the past, but it didn't really work:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/germany-lng-idUKL5N2072W1

3/14

2) Now, sth that some journalists and experts seem not to get: the difference between sanctions imposed by US Congress and "Washington" (Trump administration). So here we go - sorry for self-quotes: 4/14 https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1306313279233576960

As per CAATSA bill adopted in 2017 the U.S. administration can choose to enforce sanctions (it is not required to do so under the law) on individuals or entities involved in the construction of Russian export pipelines

5/14

"The administration has been harsh in its criticism of NS2 but refrained from taking strong steps against it in order to not worsen relations with American allies (...) CAATSA expressly provides that the U.S. will coordinate possible sanctions with its allies”

6/14

"On 15 July, the U.S. State Department updated the public guidance for some parts of the 2017 CAATSA legislation. The move signals that the U.S. is ready to impose sanctions on companies involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2"

7/14

Read more:

https://www.pism.pl/publications/The_Threat_of_CAATSA_Sanctions_on_Nord_Stream_2

8/14

So, even if US administration, upon reading the letter from GER, suddenly changes its mind it will not sort out "sanctions issue". Why? Because of US Congress sanctions bill:

9/14

"On 20 December 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act, in which Congress included a section on sanctions called ‘Protecting Europe’s Energy Security’ ".

10/14

"This act stipulates that sanctions on the owners of vessels involved in laying pipeline for NS2 or providing $ services. As a result, Swiss company Allseas, a key contractor with specialised pipelaying vessels, withdrew from the project, even though it was 95% completed"

11/14

And recently US Senators pushed for the amendments that will hit NS2 even harder.

Read more:

https://www.pism.pl/publications/Threat_of_the_New_US_Sanctions_on_Nord_Stream_2

12/14

3) What were the senators' motives? Claiming that they are driven purely by the economic factors (LNG exports) is in fact supporting Gazprom/Kremlin narrative. Kremlin claims it has nothing to do with Russian el. meddling, invasion of Ukraine, murders of pol. opponents etc

13/14

Economic factors might play a small role, but one of the main aims is to punish Russia for its aggressive policy.

The bottomline is: it might be easier to appease Trump than the Congress (!)

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