If there was any doubt about the substantial (& surprising) drop in Covid deaths in Pakistan, govt graveyard burial data from Karachi seems to absolutely confirm it, with no significant excess deaths anymore

Aug '18 - 1,745 total burials
Aug '19 - 1,832
Aug '20 - 1,952 (1 Covid)

Same data (along with figures from Lahore), however, does highlight a likely significant number of unrecorded Covid deaths in Pakistan, particularly in June

June '18 - 1,767
June '19 - 2,375
June '20 - 3,594 (of which only 118 official Covid deaths)

Unreported deaths likely to be result of people dying at home without having taken a test

Caveat that some "excess deaths" are likely to have been recorded as Covid+ by health officials, but not recorded as such by families to graveyards

Previous thread https://twitter.com/SecKermani/status/1279642115467812864?s=20

Of course, risk of another spike, especially in the winter is still very real.

Reasons for the drop in cases is unclear, but so far, even factoring in unreported Covid deaths, Pakistan seems to have fared better than feared https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53742214