Read on Twitter
1/25 | Race & College Football
With race being discussed like never before, I thought I'd share that component from the #NFLCensus
NFL Draftees By Race, 2019-2020
327 : Black
109 : White
59 : 2 or More
10 : Poly
1 : Latino
0 : Asian
0 : Native American
With race being discussed like never before, I thought I'd share that component from the #NFLCensus
NFL Draftees By Race, 2019-2020
327 : Black
109 : White
59 : 2 or More
10 : Poly
1 : Latino
0 : Asian
0 : Native American
2/25 | Here are the specifics on the "2 or More" group, a common on-field demographic in the West.
43 : Black/White
5 : Poly/White
2 : Black/Latino
2 : Latino/White
1 : Asian/Black
1 : Asian/White
1 : Black/Poly
3 : 3 races
1 : 4 races
43 : Black/White
5 : Poly/White
2 : Black/Latino
2 : Latino/White
1 : Asian/Black
1 : Asian/White
1 : Black/Poly
3 : 3 races
1 : 4 races
3/25 | Here are the specific group breakdowns as a percentage of all 2019-2020 draftees.
64.6% : Black
21.5% : White
9.8% : Black/White
2.0% : Poly
1.0% : Poly/White
0.7% : 3 races
0.4% : Black/Latino
0.4% : Latino/White
0.2% : Latino
...
0.9% : 0ther 2 or more
64.6% : Black
21.5% : White
9.8% : Black/White
2.0% : Poly
1.0% : Poly/White
0.7% : 3 races
0.4% : Black/Latino
0.4% : Latino/White
0.2% : Latino
...
0.9% : 0ther 2 or more
4/25 | Here are the per capita figures for each group. The per capita rate posted by the Polynesian community is incredible.
NFL Draftees Per 1 Million Pop, 2019-2020
21.48 : Poly
8.46 : Black
0.57 : White
0.02 : Latino
0.00 : Asian
0.00 : Native American
NFL Draftees Per 1 Million Pop, 2019-2020
21.48 : Poly
8.46 : Black
0.57 : White
0.02 : Latino
0.00 : Asian
0.00 : Native American
5/25 | It is challenging to produce per capita ratios for the growing number of multi-racial players, as how they identify on the US Census can vary (and is their business).
For this reason, as well as the common sense reason that it would be problematic to use
For this reason, as well as the common sense reason that it would be problematic to use
6/25 | the "2 or More" population from the Census as a denominator for multi-racial groups (i.e. it would be bucketing a player who is Black & White with a player that is Latino & Asian). For this reason, I won't even try.
But what we can do is allocate multi-racial players
But what we can do is allocate multi-racial players
7/25 | proportionally, and then recalculate the numbers. I very much realize that people are whole not fractions, but think of this as a census of each player's grandparents.
8/25 | ...
Draftees per 1 Million Pop : Total Draftees (fractional), 2019-2020
28.99 : 13.50 players : Poly
9.09 : 351.50 players : Black
0.71 : 136.00 players : White
0.24 : 0.50 players : Native American
0.07 : 1.25 players : Asian
0.06 : 3.25 players : Latino
Draftees per 1 Million Pop : Total Draftees (fractional), 2019-2020
28.99 : 13.50 players : Poly
9.09 : 351.50 players : Black
0.71 : 136.00 players : White
0.24 : 0.50 players : Native American
0.07 : 1.25 players : Asian
0.06 : 3.25 players : Latino
9/25 | There are regional variations in these trends. But they are not as strong as the racial ones. To illustrate, let's look at the football crazy South versus others.
Or better yet, the footprints of the SEC, Pac-12 & Big Ten, the 3 most distinctly geographic conferences.
Or better yet, the footprints of the SEC, Pac-12 & Big Ten, the 3 most distinctly geographic conferences.
10/25 | ...
Draftees per 1 Million Pop : Total Draftees, 2019-2020
2.53 : SEC
1.24 : Big Ten
1.11 : Pac-12
Black
12.02 : SEC
9.12 : Pac-12
6.12 : Big Ten
White
0.98 : Pac-12
0.69 : Big Ten
0.69 : SEC
Draftees per 1 Million Pop : Total Draftees, 2019-2020
2.53 : SEC
1.24 : Big Ten
1.11 : Pac-12
Black
12.02 : SEC
9.12 : Pac-12
6.12 : Big Ten
White
0.98 : Pac-12
0.69 : Big Ten
0.69 : SEC
11/25 | There is evidence of regional variation...to a point.
The per capita rate for African Americans in the Big Ten footprint is low. Only 1/2 the rate of the SEC (clear evidence to me of many things, namely the stifling effect the urban north has on football).
The per capita rate for African Americans in the Big Ten footprint is low. Only 1/2 the rate of the SEC (clear evidence to me of many things, namely the stifling effect the urban north has on football).
12/25 | But at the same time, the Black rate for the B1G is still 6x the highest white rate, which is, surprisingly, the Pac-12.
I love this stat. Those California surfer boys can play a little. Midwest farmers & Southern [insert tough Southern white guy thing] take note.
I love this stat. Those California surfer boys can play a little. Midwest farmers & Southern [insert tough Southern white guy thing] take note.
13/25 | Here is each group's share of each footprint's population.
Big Ten : 105.3 million
68.2% White
12.5% Black
11.3% Latino
5.1% Asian
Pac-12 : 76.3
49.8% White
30.1% Latino
10.3% Asian
4.3% Black
SEC : 95.9
56.3% White
20.3% Latino
17.9% Black
3.1% Asian
Big Ten : 105.3 million
68.2% White
12.5% Black
11.3% Latino
5.1% Asian
Pac-12 : 76.3
49.8% White
30.1% Latino
10.3% Asian
4.3% Black
SEC : 95.9
56.3% White
20.3% Latino
17.9% Black
3.1% Asian
14/25 | Takeaways
This is a very, very hard thing to talk about (full disclaimer: white guy here). I hope I have not offended anybody in this thread. But at the same time, it is critical to understanding major college football. Critical.
Here are my conference takeaways.
This is a very, very hard thing to talk about (full disclaimer: white guy here). I hope I have not offended anybody in this thread. But at the same time, it is critical to understanding major college football. Critical.
Here are my conference takeaways.
15/25 | Big Ten
What really stands out is how low the Black per capita rate is compared to the SEC (6.12 vs 12.02). One day I will have full NFL player data back to 1946, and I will measure this precisely but I * believe * that football used to thrive more in urban areas.
What really stands out is how low the Black per capita rate is compared to the SEC (6.12 vs 12.02). One day I will have full NFL player data back to 1946, and I will measure this precisely but I * believe * that football used to thrive more in urban areas.
16/25 | Big Ten (cont)
My hypothesis, is that predominantly black parts of the Rust Belt and Chicago (which is a football wasteland, despite being home to ~ 1 million African Americans) USED TO be better than they are today. I don't have the data to prove it yet.
My hypothesis, is that predominantly black parts of the Rust Belt and Chicago (which is a football wasteland, despite being home to ~ 1 million African Americans) USED TO be better than they are today. I don't have the data to prove it yet.
17/25 | Big Ten (cont)
The Black population in the Midwest is far less suburban/rural than it is in the South, so in some ways, this is an unfortunate outcome from wrongs of the past (today, residential segregation is more intense in the Midwest than it is in the South).
The Black population in the Midwest is far less suburban/rural than it is in the South, so in some ways, this is an unfortunate outcome from wrongs of the past (today, residential segregation is more intense in the Midwest than it is in the South).
18/25 | Pac-12
You can see in these numbers that, as long as football remains an intensely racialized sport, just how much of a disadvantage the Pac-12 is at. The footprint is home to 3.3 million African Americans, compared to the B1G's 13.2 million & SEC's 17.1 million.
You can see in these numbers that, as long as football remains an intensely racialized sport, just how much of a disadvantage the Pac-12 is at. The footprint is home to 3.3 million African Americans, compared to the B1G's 13.2 million & SEC's 17.1 million.
19/25 | Pac-12 (cont)
That's a really hard thing to overcome. There will not be another large-scale migration of African Americans from the South/Midwest to the West. That's not happening.
Furthermore, there is the unfortunate reality that the nation's Asian and Latino
That's a really hard thing to overcome. There will not be another large-scale migration of African Americans from the South/Midwest to the West. That's not happening.
Furthermore, there is the unfortunate reality that the nation's Asian and Latino
20/25 | Pac-12 (cont)
populations are under-represented on the football field, something that impacts the Pac-12 more than others. These two groups combine to make up 41% of the footprint population (compared to 24% of the SEC's & 16% of the Big Ten's).
populations are under-represented on the football field, something that impacts the Pac-12 more than others. These two groups combine to make up 41% of the footprint population (compared to 24% of the SEC's & 16% of the Big Ten's).
21/25 | Pac-12 (cont)
If these 2 groups eventually reached the per capita of the white pop, it'd mean hundreds more NFL players.
Also huge is whether the many kids w 1 Black parent end up closer to the Black or White per capita rate. Will be hard to measure, but its important.
If these 2 groups eventually reached the per capita of the white pop, it'd mean hundreds more NFL players.
Also huge is whether the many kids w 1 Black parent end up closer to the Black or White per capita rate. Will be hard to measure, but its important.
22/25 | Pac-12 (cont)
Saving graces for the Pac-12 are that the West is home to the overwhelming majority of the nation's Polynesian population. I need more data to know if the high white NFL per capita rate is something we can expect to continue or not.
Saving graces for the Pac-12 are that the West is home to the overwhelming majority of the nation's Polynesian population. I need more data to know if the high white NFL per capita rate is something we can expect to continue or not.
23/25 | SEC
The SEC is what it is today for a combination of its culture and its demographics. Both are important, but if I'm being blunt, it's more the latter. I want every khakis & bangs wearer to understand this on an academic level.
The SEC is what it is today for a combination of its culture and its demographics. Both are important, but if I'm being blunt, it's more the latter. I want every khakis & bangs wearer to understand this on an academic level.
24/25 | SEC (cont)
That being said, the SEC's current (and likely forever continuing) greatness is also a function of its progress. Racial income ratios are "better" (still not good, but better) in the South than they are the Midwest/Northeast. With football clearly a more
That being said, the SEC's current (and likely forever continuing) greatness is also a function of its progress. Racial income ratios are "better" (still not good, but better) in the South than they are the Midwest/Northeast. With football clearly a more
25/25 | SEC (cont)
middle class sport than basketball, this matters. Watch QB1 & the environment that Justin Fields grew up in. That's not exclusive to the South, but more common there. And watch the NFL Draft, which is a full-on celebration of the middle class Black family.
middle class sport than basketball, this matters. Watch QB1 & the environment that Justin Fields grew up in. That's not exclusive to the South, but more common there. And watch the NFL Draft, which is a full-on celebration of the middle class Black family.
