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Let's talk about James Robinson
Robinson wasn't the most highly recruited player coming out of HS, but he found his way on the field at Illinois State and quickly excelled
https://247sports.com/Player/James-Robinson-81941/
Robinson wasn't the most highly recruited player coming out of HS, but he found his way on the field at Illinois State and quickly excelled
https://247sports.com/Player/James-Robinson-81941/
You have to hunt a little to find his statlines, but the numbers are impressive: a total of 44 TDs and just under 4000 all-purpose yards.
His experience as a kick returner is a plus
https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/4052042/type/college
His experience as a kick returner is a plus
https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/4052042/type/college
His prospect profile is just ok.
-great college dominator (but small school)
-weak YPC
-weak speed score
-great burst score
-ok REC totals; it's tough to find enough Illinois State stats to determine target share
-of course, UDFA, so no draft capital https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/james-robinson/
-great college dominator (but small school)
-weak YPC
-weak speed score
-great burst score
-ok REC totals; it's tough to find enough Illinois State stats to determine target share
-of course, UDFA, so no draft capital https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/james-robinson/
But clearly he impressed his NFL coaches enough for them to add him to the active roster and eventually hand him the keys to the run game.
In his first outing, he looked pretty good and put up some decent numbers against a respectable Colts defense (19th last year as per FO)
In his first outing, he looked pretty good and put up some decent numbers against a respectable Colts defense (19th last year as per FO)
Let's look at some carries!
There's things Robinson does well. Here's his first carry:
-direct runner. He doesn't waste time or motion
-good vision. He sees the gap isn't there and bounces
-lateral movement. nice jump step here
-balance. stays centered
-angles.
There's things Robinson does well. Here's his first carry:
-direct runner. He doesn't waste time or motion
-good vision. He sees the gap isn't there and bounces
-lateral movement. nice jump step here
-balance. stays centered
-angles.
Here's his next carry, another long gain.
-finds the crease
-enough burst to get through the hole
-good power and contact balance help him fight through the arm tackles
-finds the crease
-enough burst to get through the hole
-good power and contact balance help him fight through the arm tackles
Here's his 3rd carry.
-again, good vision and a nice jump cut to get outside
-maintains his balance through the lateral motion, is ready for contact
-takes on the defender, finishes the run
-again, good vision and a nice jump cut to get outside
-maintains his balance through the lateral motion, is ready for contact
-takes on the defender, finishes the run
This might be my favorite run of his on the night. It's those same assets working for him again:
-sees the gap isn't there, bounces
-his burst & stiffarms turn a safety into a 12 yard run
-finishes hard
-sees the gap isn't there, bounces
-his burst & stiffarms turn a safety into a 12 yard run
-finishes hard
This zone run is well blocked for him. It gives me hope for the Jaguars o-line
Unfortunately, it seemed like Indy figured out the battle of the trenches towards the end of the 2nd
This one's not blocked well, but he still slips through a fading crease and then creates some added yards himself
There's a lot of this in the 2nd half. They weren't letting him get the edges any more, and there was no room in the middle
Still, Robinson is taking what's blocked, and creating some yardage, consistently. He's not the fastest or most athletic back- he's not running away from anyone- but his tough, direct running style (and solid ball security) is definitely an asset to the team
Here, he tries his same tricks again, but Indy has dominated his blockers, and he's lucky to get a yard.
He doesn't have the ability that the superstar backs have of creating their own yardage consistently; but, then again, how was Saquon's week 1 statline? How about Joe Mixon's?
Which might emphasize the worst thing about Robinson for fantasy: this line is not great. They did manage a #18 ranking by Football Outsiders this week, which was better than I expected. But he was largely shut down entirely in the 2nd half
I would love to see more of this- Robinson's only target, a designed swing pass, gave him space to build up speed, and he straight-up hurdled a dude- and then ran for another twenty yards after.
Point is, he might be effective if given more targets. Remember Lenny's 2019?
Point is, he might be effective if given more targets. Remember Lenny's 2019?
Is he going to be a superstar? He doesn't meet very many of the thresholds we like to see for elite fantasy performers.
But, as you know, opportunity is 9/10 of production, and it looks like Robinson will have plenty of that this year.
But, as you know, opportunity is 9/10 of production, and it looks like Robinson will have plenty of that this year.
He likely went in this week's first waiver run, but be sure to check the wire in your league; he should be owned in all but the shallowest leagues.
Will he have long-term success? Time will tell. I wouldn't bet all my marbles on it; the profile suggests more of a Peyton-Barber-type career than it does an elite runner, but there are always outliers.
He did do some objectively good football things in his debut.
PlayerProfiler has him charted with the 8th most evaded tackles and the 11th best juke rate of any week 1 RB; he had the 17th most yards created and 15th best yards / touch
PlayerProfiler has him charted with the 8th most evaded tackles and the 11th best juke rate of any week 1 RB; he had the 17th most yards created and 15th best yards / touch
Ultimately, he's worth a stash to see what happens, in any format. I sent out some trade offers to see if I could grab him on the cheap in nearly all my leagues; most were snap-rejected.
He's easily worth a 3rd-rounder or equivalent; if he keeps this workload that is a steal
He's easily worth a 3rd-rounder or equivalent; if he keeps this workload that is a steal
