. @CDCgov out with metrics to guide school reopenings.

I like it. It sets out risk levels based on key metrics using a color scheme

But if you apply their metrics, the news isn't good.

Most of the country is in red or orange

Thread https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html
Three key criteria:

1. # of cases in community
2. % of test positives
3. # of mitigation strategies you can do

Cases in the community: range from <5 per 100K/14 days as dark green to >200 as red

% pos <3% dark green to >10% red

So how do communities across America fare?

We applied these two criteria to states+DC

What did we find?

20 states in red "highest risk"
28 states in orange "higher risk"
2 in yellow "moderate risk"
1 light green "low risk"
0 dark green "lowest risk"

Ah you say -- states too big. How about counties?

So what about counties?

56% counties are highest (red)
31% are higher (orange)

But counties vary in population -- so about where people live?

Well, 40% of people live in counties that are red (highest risk)

48% of people live in counties that are orange (higher risk)

Only 11% live in the yellow counties (moderate risk)

1% live in light green (lower risk)

Theses are super sobering numbers

What does this mean?

First, it is awesome to see CDC put out this risk criteria.

Its a bit agressive in its threshold (I might have made orange a bit higher) but its still quite good.

It is not mean to be prescriptive -- saying red counties can't open.

But it does mean it'll be very hard to re-open schools in many places across the nation.

My take is that counties that are orange -- but close to yellow -- can open if they have the mitigation strategies

But red counties will struggle no matter what they do


Its a reminder that we had all spring and summer to get our schools ready.

And we largely didn't.

And new CDC criteria laying out how much of America has not done the job to ope schools safely

And by that failure, we are letting our kids down.

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