Lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth about Invest 90L in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. And I get it. I tried my best to explain it this morning @SpaceCityWX. So let's talk about it some more. 1/8 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1306210283090780162

Here's a look at 90L on satellite this afternoon. This one is probably not going to go off to the races quickly. This is a slow burn. It's not impressive at this time, and that's why the NHC offers relatively conservative 50% development odds the next 2 days & 70% the next 5. 2/

Over the next few days, 90L is not going to move much. A weakening upper low exiting Texas, along w/ a cold front will keep it suppressed to the south. Development, if any, again will be slow. Images attached show where the Euro ensemble & new GFS ensemble place 90L on Sat AM. 3/

You'll notice that there's a spread there across the Gulf, but all of them are strung out south and east of us because, cold front! The Sunday AM surface map forecast from NOAA shows this well. Front offshore, well to our south, 90L well to our south. 4/

Great. So we're good thru Sunday. So what about next week? Well, that's where it gets tricky. Recall the maps in the 3rd tweet. Here they are, except valid for next Tuesday evening. The GFS ensemble shows less support for a storm than the Euro, and most Euro members are weak. 5/

But the bottom line here, using these context clues is that most reliable model guidance this far out shows whatever 90L becomes will likely stay to our south and perhaps stay on the weaker side. But...it's close. Too close to write off but far enough away to not worry. Yet. 6/

That said, never trust a slow moving storm in the Gulf. And if you want to see why, look at what the tropical models have going on here. Don't focus on any one run here. But appreciate the broader picture. Loops, curls, weird tracks. Kind of a mess, TBH. 7/

What am I saying? I'm saying that the weather pattern next week, while one that should keep 90L to our south or east is also one that, if it changes in unexpected ways, could yield a much different outcome. No need to worry at this point, but you should stay tuned in. 8/8