Spending the final weeks of the campaign chasing the non-college educated white vote is far more important than trying to win over non-white voters... (thread)

2016 turnout by racial group and (Trump's percentage)

College educated whites: 77% (48%)
Blacks: 59% (8%)
Non-college educated whites: 58% (66%)
Asians: 49% (27%)
Hispanics: 48% (28%)

Trump is expected to do significantly better among Hispanics, marginally for Asians, and only slightly for black Americans... while losing a large portion of college educated whites and some non-college educated whites

Let's say, Trump were to get

63% non-college educated whites (-3%)
44% college educated whites (-4%)
36% hispanics (+8%)
32% asians (+5%)
10% blacks (+2%)

That would result in a Biden landslide

You simply can't offset the losses of college educated whites with non-white voters. There aren't enough of them out there.

Trump can win 70% of the Latino vote and still lose the election.

Increasing the national turnout of non-college educated whites by 2 points from 58% to 60% or increasing Trump's percentage (w/o increased turnout) by 2 points is the same as trying to flip 8% of the black vote or flipping the Hispanic vote by 12%.

There's simply a lot more voters to work with..

There are also 42 million non-college educated whites who are not registered to votes, heavily concentrated in states with same day voter registration including Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Wisconsin

To put it simply, this is pretty much what a electoral map would look like if Trump lost 3% of the white vote and gained 10% of the Latino, 8% of the Asian, and 5% of the black vote:

Here's what happens if Trump loses the college educated white vote by 3 points but wins 2% more of the non-college educated white vote and they turn out at 60% (instead of 58%) and 5% of latino, 4% of asian, 2% of the black vote than he did in 2016

There are more paths to the presidency by looking to register and turnout just 2-3% more of the working-class white vote than there are by trying to win 10% more of Hispanic or Asians... and there is no evidence he's winning much more than 10% of the black vote.

One last note: I'm not saying minority outreach is bad... it isn't and the GOP should be doing more of it.

But that's not how you get to 270... it may be how you get to 350, but not 270. That's with the non-college educated white voter.