At the press briefing in the Department of Health this evening, Chair of the NPHET IEMAG Professor Philip Nolan @President_MU showed a series of slides.

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Case numbers rose sharply five weeks ago and are now increasing rapidly. Hospitalisations have increased considerably over the last four weeks. The number of people in ICU remains low. The number of deaths is increasing

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The numbers of tests remains high, the positivity rate low, but not as low as it was in June and July

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Daily and weekly count and 5-day rolling average – daily average confirmed cases had been stable at 20 per day up to 29 July. Case counts have been increasing; the daily average is now 246.

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Confirmed cases in acute hospitals.

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Deaths per day

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A large number of recent cases are close contacts of confirmed cases, mostly in outbreaks.

The lower percentage of community transmission in early August was due to an increase in size of outbreaks, not a reduction in community transmission.

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There is a recent increase in incidence in the 65+ age group.

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14-day cumulative incidence by county

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The burden of infection in Dublin is increasing, but also in other parts of the country.

(Note: All others excludes Dublin, Kildare, Laois & Offaly)

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R is difficult to estimate, our best estimate at this time for the country as a whole is that it is between 1.3 and 1.7
with the epidemic growing quickly. R for Dublin alone is similar.

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What do our models tells us?

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Situation analysis. For a playback of @President_MU's commentary on these slides, you can watch back the live stream of the briefing on @roinnslainte.

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