Read on Twitter
WANT TO REALLY TRACK RECENT TRENDS?
- for your county?
- for meaningful age groups?
Seen the @nytimes display of recent trends
but wondered about heterogeneity across age groups that may be differentially impacted by decisions we make?
Now you've got a viz for that.
1/
- for your county?
- for meaningful age groups?
Seen the @nytimes display of recent trends
but wondered about heterogeneity across age groups that may be differentially impacted by decisions we make?Now you've got a viz for that.
1/
First viz (#6 on my CASES page) looks bland enough, but contains good info.
The default is statewide.
Age groups (9) make up the rows.
"Case date" makes up the columns, from most-to-least recent.
The # in each cell is the TWO-WEEK CHANGE IN DAILY CASES.
The what?
2/
(#6 on my CASES page) looks bland enough, but contains good info.The default is statewide.
Age groups (9) make up the rows.
"Case date" makes up the columns, from most-to-least recent.
The # in each cell is the TWO-WEEK CHANGE IN DAILY CASES.
The what?
2/
The calculation:
I want to know 2-wk trends from 8/24 to 9/7.
On 8/24, we calculate the 7-day rolling avg daily cases (to remove daily variability)
On 9/7, do same thing.
What's in the cell for 9/7 is the diff in those numbers, expressed as a % change.
Tooltip helps
3/
I want to know 2-wk trends from 8/24 to 9/7.
On 8/24, we calculate the 7-day rolling avg daily cases (to remove daily variability)
On 9/7, do same thing.
What's in the cell for 9/7 is the diff in those numbers, expressed as a % change.
Tooltip helps
3/
For example, in the 18-24 population statewide, as of Aug 24, there had been a 42% decrease in avg daily cases (+ tests) in the previous 2 wks.
Fast forward 2 wks to 9/7, and there was a 57% increase in avg daily cases relative to 8/24.
From a period of
to a period of 
4/
Fast forward 2 wks to 9/7, and there was a 57% increase in avg daily cases relative to 8/24.
From a period of
to a period of 4/
How does this look during a period of global increase, as was the case in June?
Just scroll to the right.
The more
the higher the % increase in prev 2 weeks.
Growth started with younger age groups, and then made its way to more pronounced % increase in older groups.
5/
Just scroll to the right.
The more
the higher the % increase in prev 2 weeks.Growth started with younger age groups, and then made its way to more pronounced % increase in older groups.
5/
But that's statewide - we always say this is not a one-size-fits-all situation.
Scroll to the viz below (#7).
The default has counties making up the rows, based on the experience of all age groups combined.
Just a look at the first flew counties shows the heterogeneity.
6/
Scroll to the viz below (#7).
The default has counties making up the rows, based on the experience of all age groups combined.
Just a look at the first flew counties shows the heterogeneity.
6/
Then you can filter by age.
AND, since daily cases estimates can have high temporal variability in small counties, especially when filtering by age, I included a filter based on county pop.
Below I filter to the 23/67 counties w/ 250,000+ pop.
Still big heterogenity.
7/
AND, since daily cases estimates can have high temporal variability in small counties, especially when filtering by age, I included a filter based on county pop.
Below I filter to the 23/67 counties w/ 250,000+ pop.
Still big heterogenity.
7/
How might one use this?
Let's focus on all age groups except college-aged. By Aug 24, all large counties had been experiencing in daily cases in previous 2 weeks (all 
)
Then, during September, a few here and there, but nothing pronounced.
8/
Let's focus on all age groups except college-aged. By Aug 24, all large counties had been experiencing
in daily cases in previous 2 weeks (all )Then, during September, a few
here and there, but nothing pronounced.8/
What if we look only at college-aged?
By Aug 24, all large counties had been experiencing in daily cases in previous 2 weeks (all )
BUT, look at September. for a higher proportion of counties...but also not in all of them.
9/
By Aug 24, all large counties had been experiencing
in daily cases in previous 2 weeks (all )BUT, look at September.
for a higher proportion of counties...but also not in all of them.9/
In Alachua county, the hover-based tooltip for the 18-24 group is
The number in the cell for 9/14 is 1926.
A 1926% increase in the 7-day avg daily cases on 9/14 compared to 8/31.
From 5 daily cases to 98 daily cases. Hence the deep color.
10/
The number in the cell for 9/14 is 1926.
A 1926% increase in the 7-day avg daily cases on 9/14 compared to 8/31.
From 5 daily cases to 98 daily cases. Hence the deep
color.10/
Could do the same with vulnerable populations, at least based on age (e.g., 80+)
This will be important to monitor when community spread in younger groups, to see if it "reaches" vulnerable groups (hopefully not).
is a current viz for 80+ in 250k+ counties.
11/
This will be important to monitor when community spread
in younger groups, to see if it "reaches" vulnerable groups (hopefully not).is a current viz for 80+ in 250k+ counties.11/
A deeper dive MUST OCCUR.
For ex, previous fig might have concerned you about Volusia county.
But the tooltip tells you the cases just went from ~3 to ~5. A big % increase, but not absolute.
I could then look at an epidemic curve in the 80+ group to confirm the small #
12/
For ex, previous fig might have concerned you about Volusia county.
But the tooltip tells you the cases just went from ~3 to ~5. A big % increase, but not absolute.
I could then look at an epidemic curve in the 80+ group to confirm the small #
12/
So, I hope this is a nice tool to track 2-wk changes in daily cases for subgroups of interest.
This is different from the @nytimes in that:
- they use the date cases are reported, I use the date of + test
- they provide state & county granularity, I include age specificity
13/
This is different from the @nytimes in that:
- they use the date cases are reported, I use the date of + test
- they provide state & county granularity, I include age specificity
13/
As we await a statewide school-based report, and try to leverage district or county-specific dashboards being created...
...this should facilitate easier visual inspection of changing trends in age groups and regions of interest to us all.
14/
...this should facilitate easier visual inspection of changing trends in age groups and regions of interest to us all.
14/
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO SHARE with anyone who may find this useful!
First, my fellow "dashers"
@FLCovid @scottdavidherr @zorinaq @DrSeaPerle @drsxr @39Magilla @COVID19Tracking @COVKIDProject @JuliaLMarcus @DrZoeHyde @GidMK @kissane
15/ http://covid19florida.mystrikingly.com/
First, my fellow "dashers"
@FLCovid @scottdavidherr @zorinaq @DrSeaPerle @drsxr @39Magilla @COVID19Tracking @COVKIDProject @JuliaLMarcus @DrZoeHyde @GidMK @kissane
15/ http://covid19florida.mystrikingly.com/
So excited about these additions to track temporal changes in FL. should be too.
@nataliexdean @GeoRebekah @aetiology @michaelmina_lab @meganranney @DrEricDing
@ASlavitt @PeterJ_Walker @EpiEllie @bethlinas
@NotoriousRSG @NaseemMiller @dchangmiami
@conarck @deannaTVnews
16/
should be too.@nataliexdean @GeoRebekah @aetiology @michaelmina_lab @meganranney @DrEricDing
@ASlavitt @PeterJ_Walker @EpiEllie @bethlinas
@NotoriousRSG @NaseemMiller @dchangmiami
@conarck @deannaTVnews
16/
