WANT TO REALLY TRACK RECENT TRENDS?
- for your county?
- for meaningful age groups?

Seen the @nytimes display of recent trends https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten"> but wondered about heterogeneity across age groups that may be differentially impacted by decisions we make?

Now you& #39;ve got a viz for that.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧵" title="Thread" aria-label="Emoji: Thread">1/

First viz https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten"> ( #6 on my CASES page) looks bland enough, but contains good info.

The default is statewide.

Age groups (9) make up the rows.

"Case date" makes up the columns, from most-to-least recent.

The # in each cell is the TWO-WEEK CHANGE IN DAILY CASES.

The what?

2/

The calculation:

I want to know 2-wk trends from 8/24 to 9/7.

On 8/24, we calculate the 7-day rolling avg daily cases (to remove daily variability)

On 9/7, do same thing.

What& #39;s in the cell for 9/7 is the diff in those numbers, expressed as a % change.

Tooltip helps https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">

3/

For example, in the 18-24 population statewide, as of Aug 24, there had been a 42% decrease in avg daily cases (+ tests) in the previous 2 wks.

Fast forward 2 wks to 9/7, and there was a 57% increase in avg daily cases relative to 8/24.

From a period of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten">to a period of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬆️" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben">

4/

How does this look during a period of global increase, as was the case in June?

Just scroll to the right.

The more https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Roter Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Roter Kreis"> the higher the % increase in prev 2 weeks.

Growth started with younger age groups, and then made its way to more pronounced % increase in older groups.

5/

But that& #39;s statewide - we always say this is not a one-size-fits-all situation.

Scroll to the viz below ( #7).

The default has counties making up the rows, based on the experience of all age groups combined.

Just a look at the first flew counties shows the heterogeneity.

6/

Then you can filter by age.

AND, since daily cases estimates can have high temporal variability in small counties, especially when filtering by age, I included a filter based on county pop.

Below I filter to the 23/67 counties w/ 250,000+ pop.

Still big heterogenity.

7/

How might one use this?

Let& #39;s focus on all age groups except college-aged. By Aug 24, all large counties had been experiencing https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten"> in daily cases in previous 2 weeks (all https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟢" title="Grüner Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Grüner Kreis">)

Then, during September, a few https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬆️" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben"> here and there, but nothing pronounced.

8/

What if we look only at college-aged?

By Aug 24, all large counties had been experiencing https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pfeil nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach unten"> in daily cases in previous 2 weeks (all https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟢" title="Grüner Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Grüner Kreis">)

BUT, look at September. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Roter Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Roter Kreis">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Roter Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Roter Kreis">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Roter Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Roter Kreis">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Roter Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Roter Kreis">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Roter Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Roter Kreis">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Roter Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Roter Kreis">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Roter Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Roter Kreis"> for a higher proportion of counties...but also not in all of them.

9/

In Alachua county, the hover-based tooltip for the 18-24 group is https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">

The number in the cell for 9/14 is 1926.

A 1926% increase in the 7-day avg daily cases on 9/14 compared to 8/31.

From 5 daily cases to 98 daily cases. Hence the deep https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔴" title="Roter Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Roter Kreis"> color.

10/

Could do the same with vulnerable populations, at least based on age (e.g., 80+)

This will be important to monitor when community spread https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬆️" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben"> in younger groups, to see if it "reaches" vulnerable groups (hopefully not).

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">is a current viz for 80+ in 250k+ counties.

11/

A deeper dive MUST OCCUR.

For ex, previous fig might have concerned you about Volusia county.

But the tooltip tells you the cases just went from ~3 to ~5. A big % increase, but not absolute.

I could then look at an epidemic curve in the 80+ group to confirm the small #

12/

So, I hope this is a nice tool to track 2-wk changes in daily cases for subgroups of interest.

This is different from the @nytimes in that:
- they use the date cases are reported, I use the date of + test
- they provide state & county granularity, I include age specificity

13/

As we await a statewide school-based report, and try to leverage district or county-specific dashboards being created...

...this should facilitate easier visual inspection of changing trends in age groups and regions of interest to us all.

14/

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO SHARE with anyone who may find this useful!

First, my fellow "dashers"
@FLCovid @scottdavidherr @zorinaq @DrSeaPerle @drsxr @39Magilla @COVID19Tracking @COVKIDProject @JuliaLMarcus @DrZoeHyde @GidMK @kissane

15/ http://covid19florida.mystrikingly.com/ ">https://covid19florida.mystrikingly.com/">...

So excited about these additions to track temporal changes in FL. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">should be too.

@nataliexdean @GeoRebekah @aetiology @michaelmina_lab @meganranney @DrEricDing
@ASlavitt @PeterJ_Walker @EpiEllie @bethlinas
@NotoriousRSG @NaseemMiller @dchangmiami
@conarck @deannaTVnews

16/https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏁" title="Karierte Flagge" aria-label="Emoji: Karierte Flagge">