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Tournament odds by @domluszczyszyn
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2020/07/26221314/Dom.png
Each box represents ~25% of the odds. We'd therefore expect ~1 team from each box to be in the final four.
That's pretty good.
Tampa needs to beat the Isles in order for the last round to satisfy the box~50% odds.
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2020/07/26221314/Dom.png
Each box represents ~25% of the odds. We'd therefore expect ~1 team from each box to be in the final four.
That's pretty good.
Tampa needs to beat the Isles in order for the last round to satisfy the box~50% odds.
The top 6 represents 76% of the odds, and 3 of the 4 teams (75%) came from the top 6.
In order for the odds to be good, you do NOT want ALL FOUR TEAMS to come from the top 6. Those would have been BAD odds.
2/3
In order for the odds to be good, you do NOT want ALL FOUR TEAMS to come from the top 6. Those would have been BAD odds.
2/3
3/3
The only way for all 4 teams to come from the top 6 and the odds be good is if the forecast for the top 6 would encapsulate 88%+ of the odds.
The only way for all 4 teams to come from the top 6 and the odds be good is if the forecast for the top 6 would encapsulate 88%+ of the odds.
This is something that is strange to alot of people, that the "favorite" has to win in order for the odds to be good. No, that's not how it works.
You have to think in terms of "expected value". When @NateSilver538 had all 50 favored states win, that was NOT a good outcome!
You have to think in terms of "expected value". When @NateSilver538 had all 50 favored states win, that was NOT a good outcome!
That's because the Expected Value of his odds were that the favorites would win 48-49 states. In other words, getting all 50 favs to win was just as likely for Nate as having 47/50 favs to win. He'd be just as happy.
But most folks don't see it that way.
But most folks don't see it that way.
