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ANALYSIS THREAD - latest evidence
European #Covid19 cases are rising, but whatever is happening we must not forget our joined-up thinking:
National lockdowns are medieval, unscientific, counter productive & politically amateur
Don’t panic.
Here’s why:
European #Covid19 cases are rising, but whatever is happening we must not forget our joined-up thinking:
National lockdowns are medieval, unscientific, counter productive & politically amateur
Don’t panic.
Here’s why:
Infection rates across Europe *appear* to be rising
Wider testing plus easing restrictions may have contributed to this
SO, that’s *not necessarily* bad news, because death rates & death tolls are still falling while immunity naturally rises among young https://www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7
Wider testing plus easing restrictions may have contributed to this
SO, that’s *not necessarily* bad news, because death rates & death tolls are still falling while immunity naturally rises among young https://www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7
Dont panic:
a) like other viruses, #Covid19 *appears* to get weaker the more it spreads (this is an old virus survival mechanism trick, because killing the host too early means it can’t jump to others) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ
a) like other viruses, #Covid19 *appears* to get weaker the more it spreads (this is an old virus survival mechanism trick, because killing the host too early means it can’t jump to others) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ
b) the spread is among the young, so as long as we shield the vulnerable & test properly, we now *know* it hardly kills the young & we now know what to expect
BUT, this spread is most likely to occur *because* of locking down (being indoors not outdoors) https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/07/18/young-people-most-likely-to-spread-coronavirus-at-home-large-study-finds/
BUT, this spread is most likely to occur *because* of locking down (being indoors not outdoors) https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/07/18/young-people-most-likely-to-spread-coronavirus-at-home-large-study-finds/
Growing evidence suggests that being indoors (lockdown) helps spread the virus more than being outdoors & socially distant https://www.businessinsider.com/risk-of-coronavirus-transmission-lower-outdoors-evidence-2020-5
As we now see, countries that imposed national lockdowns merely suppressed the virus, making this 2nd case round inevitable until a vaccine or natural herd immunity is realised.
Disastrously, these nations also destroyed their economies (yes, UK too) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/top-belgian-scientist-calls-for-herd-immunity-coronavirus-strategy-gxwqj887m
Disastrously, these nations also destroyed their economies (yes, UK too) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/top-belgian-scientist-calls-for-herd-immunity-coronavirus-strategy-gxwqj887m
Whereas Sweden *never* had a national lockdown. They combined social distancing & shielding the vulnerable.
S.Korea also never had national lockdown, only hotspot lockdowns & mass testing
Crucially, Sweden’s economy was not shut down https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/swedes-try-not-to-gloat-over-a-healthy-economy-and-a-plunge-in-coronavirus-cases-6q5xt55qc
S.Korea also never had national lockdown, only hotspot lockdowns & mass testing
Crucially, Sweden’s economy was not shut down https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/swedes-try-not-to-gloat-over-a-healthy-economy-and-a-plunge-in-coronavirus-cases-6q5xt55qc
PS: higher excess deaths in Sweden explained by low excess flu deaths year prior (“dry timber” phenomenon: would have sadly died year before, except it was a weak flu year)
Now, deaths plummeting along EU average, despite no lockdown
source: @FatEmperor https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1305487513251909639?s=21
Now, deaths plummeting along EU average, despite no lockdown
source: @FatEmperor https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1305487513251909639?s=21
Manaus in Brazil was the same, probably by chance. Either way, their deaths were severely front-loaded, causing short-sighted derision & fear globally.
Now, their deaths have plummeted, so far with no sign of returning despite rising cases globally https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/manaus-amazonian-city-with-no-lockdown-may-have-reached-herd-immunity-hmvnzm9xh
Now, their deaths have plummeted, so far with no sign of returning despite rising cases globally https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/manaus-amazonian-city-with-no-lockdown-may-have-reached-herd-immunity-hmvnzm9xh
In fact, as you can see via a *climate for climate* comparison, even outside of just Manaus, Brazil (no lockdown) is fairing slightly better on case deaths than Peru (was locked down)
source: @FatEmperor https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1305487513251909639?s=21
source: @FatEmperor https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1305487513251909639?s=21
This appears to be a pattern globally:
“The global “case fatality rate” — total deaths as a proportion of confirmed cases — has fallen by half over the past three months to below 0.04 as of Monday.” https://www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7
“The global “case fatality rate” — total deaths as a proportion of confirmed cases — has fallen by half over the past three months to below 0.04 as of Monday.” https://www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7
As predicted, countries with no lockdown witnessed a front-loading of inevitable deaths that tapered out & then started to fall faster than countries that delayed their death curve by flattening it (making it thinner & longer, rather than fatter &higher)
https://twitter.com/parnellpalme/status/1306118270215270406?s=21
https://twitter.com/parnellpalme/status/1306118270215270406?s=21
Lockdown countries *initially* had an excuse for prolonging #Covid19 deaths like this, mainly NHS capacity & PPE supply-side concerns
These issues *no longer exist*, UK’s emergency Nightingale field hospitals never hit capacity & *all* 5 permanently shut https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1860
These issues *no longer exist*, UK’s emergency Nightingale field hospitals never hit capacity & *all* 5 permanently shut https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1860
In fact:
So low was demand for these 5 emergency Nightingale field hospitals that the ones in Birmingham & Harrogate didn’t even treat a single patient!
Not. One. Patient.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1860
So low was demand for these 5 emergency Nightingale field hospitals that the ones in Birmingham & Harrogate didn’t even treat a single patient!
Not. One. Patient.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1860
As we warned, this was never a question of saving lives VS economy. Tanking the economy was always going to cost lives https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0863-y
And crucially, class tension (economic & racial) was caused by shutting down, with minorities converted overnight into a servant class for metropolitan elite https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/22/covid-19-britain-ethnic-minorities-government-race-inequality-epidemic
Is there any wonder that racial tension blew up during lockdown? As we’re so many other ethnic minorities:
Disproportionately working
Disproportionately searched by police
Disproportionately fined
Disproportionately died https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52905787
Disproportionately working
Disproportionately searched by police
Disproportionately fined
Disproportionately died https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52905787
It’s easy to ignore this because so much has happened since, but remember that George Floyd was stopped by police during lockdown, while we were still not allowed out much.
It should have been impossible to forget this, though forgotten it we have https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52933076
It should have been impossible to forget this, though forgotten it we have https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52933076
Elite classes were all paid furlough while the working classes & ethnic minorities became servants - and many will not tolerate people doing that to them again while the taxes of the vulnerable working service sector pay for your elite furlough in the park
And we haven’t even got to the children who will die from lockdown caused economic hardship yet: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7
Or even to country collapse (with all its related national security nightmares) as foreign remittances froze due to Covid: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/28/the-end-of-the-middle-easts-trickle-down-economy/
As should be clear by now it is highly damaging & politically amateur to limit this debate only to effects of Covid alone, or for “scientists” alone. It is not scientists’ job to think through policy. Leave that to politicians https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0894-x
Scientists are not *policy* experts & trying to “stop” covid has other severe unintended consequences (domestic abuse up, cancer consistent but referrals down, poverty & racism) https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-53014211
So what makes sense is a proper testing regime combined with only hotspot lockdowns & shielding the vulnerable
UK Rule of 6 is arbitrary
National lockdowns are politically amateur & classist
They are also institutionally racist, by correlation https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53539577
UK Rule of 6 is arbitrary
National lockdowns are politically amateur & classist
They are also institutionally racist, by correlation https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53539577
Finally, Europe-wide average excess deaths in 2020 are 40K more than excess flu deaths 2018 (one death is too many but action can harm as many as inaction)
source: @FatEmperor https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1305487513251909639?s=21
Less rabbit-hole style lockdown hysteria & more joined-up thinking please
source: @FatEmperor https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1305487513251909639?s=21
Less rabbit-hole style lockdown hysteria & more joined-up thinking please
