ANALYSIS THREAD - latest evidence

European #Covid19 cases are rising, but whatever is happening we must not forget our joined-up thinking:

National lockdowns are medieval, unscientific, counter productive & politically amateur

Don’t panic.

Here’s why:
Infection rates across Europe *appear* to be rising

Wider testing plus easing restrictions may have contributed to this

SO, that’s *not necessarily* bad news, because death rates & death tolls are still falling while immunity naturally rises among young https://www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7">https://www.ft.com/content/c...
Dont panic:

a) like other viruses, #Covid19 *appears* to get weaker the more it spreads (this is an old virus survival mechanism trick, because killing the host too early means it can’t jump to others) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ">https://www.reuters.com/article/u...
b) the spread is among the young, so as long as we shield the vulnerable & test properly, we now *know* it hardly kills the young & we now know what to expect

BUT, this spread is most likely to occur *because* of locking down (being indoors not outdoors) https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/07/18/young-people-most-likely-to-spread-coronavirus-at-home-large-study-finds/">https://www.forbes.com/sites/rac...
PS: higher excess deaths in Sweden explained by low excess flu deaths year prior (“dry timber” phenomenon: would have sadly died year before, except it was a weak flu year)
Now, deaths plummeting along EU average, despite no lockdown

source: @FatEmperor https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1305487513251909639?s=21">https://twitter.com/maajidnaw...
In fact, as you can see via a *climate for climate* comparison, even outside of just Manaus, Brazil (no lockdown) is fairing slightly better on case deaths than Peru (was locked down)

source: @FatEmperor https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1305487513251909639?s=21">https://twitter.com/maajidnaw...
This appears to be a pattern globally:

“The global “case fatality rate” — total deaths as a proportion of confirmed cases — has fallen by half over the past three months to below 0.04 as of Monday.” https://www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7">https://www.ft.com/content/c...
As predicted, countries with no lockdown witnessed a front-loading of inevitable deaths that tapered out & then started to fall faster than countries that delayed their death curve by flattening it (making it thinner & longer, rather than fatter &higher)

https://twitter.com/parnellpalme/status/1306118270215270406?s=21">https://twitter.com/parnellpa...
Lockdown countries *initially* had an excuse for prolonging #Covid19 deaths like this, mainly NHS capacity & PPE supply-side concerns

These issues *no longer exist*, UK’s emergency Nightingale field hospitals never hit capacity & *all* 5 permanently shut https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1860">https://www.bmj.com/content/3...
In fact:

So low was demand for these 5 emergency Nightingale field hospitals that the ones in Birmingham & Harrogate didn’t even treat a single patient!

Not. One. Patient.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1860">https://www.bmj.com/content/3...
Is there any wonder that racial tension blew up during lockdown? As we’re so many other ethnic minorities:

Disproportionately working

Disproportionately searched by police

Disproportionately fined

Disproportionately died https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52905787">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-e...
It’s easy to ignore this because so much has happened since, but remember that George Floyd was stopped by police during lockdown, while we were still not allowed out much.

It should have been impossible to forget this, though forgotten it we have https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52933076">https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-e...
Elite classes were all paid furlough while the working classes & ethnic minorities became servants - and many will not tolerate people doing that to them again while the taxes of the vulnerable working service sector pay for your elite furlough in the park
As should be clear by now it is highly damaging & politically amateur to limit this debate only to effects of Covid alone, or for “scientists” alone. It is not scientists’ job to think through policy. Leave that to politicians https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0894-x">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
Scientists are not *policy* experts & trying to “stop” covid has other severe unintended consequences (domestic abuse up, cancer consistent but referrals down, poverty & racism) https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-53014211">https://www.bbc.com/news/av/w...
So what makes sense is a proper testing regime combined with only hotspot lockdowns & shielding the vulnerable

UK Rule of 6 is arbitrary

National lockdowns are politically amateur & classist

They are also institutionally racist, by correlation https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53539577">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-w...
Finally, Europe-wide average excess deaths in 2020 are 40K more than excess flu deaths 2018 (one death is too many but action can harm as many as inaction)
source: @FatEmperor https://twitter.com/maajidnawaz/status/1305487513251909639?s=21

Less">https://twitter.com/maajidnaw... rabbit-hole style lockdown hysteria & more joined-up thinking please https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙏🏽" title="Folded hands (mittlerer Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Folded hands (mittlerer Hautton)">
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