1/ Trump hasn't been talking about immigration as much in his rallies. He's acting as if he considers the immigration issue *mostly* settled. The wall is getting built and immigration is way down.

2/ So, he rarely talks about it at all in his rallies. Except to note his successes. No one is chanting "Build the Wall, Build the Wall" because the wall is getting built.

3/Because immigration is mostly settled for Trump, or rather downgraded, this allows him to pivot to courting Hispanics. His current rhetoric is not scaring away the fence-sitting Hispanics.

4/At the same time, Biden is focusing on Trump's handling of COVID, not Trump's supposed cruelty to Latinx, which is giving Trump plenty of space to increase his Hispanic support.

5/ Likewise, BLM antics and riots are doing nothing to make Hispanic voters feel good about the Democratic party. The Dems Frankenstein coalition is fracturing.

6/Thus, Hispanics will be a major part of Trump's winning coalition in the Southwest. And Hispanic down-ballot voting for the GOP will flip a lot of Dem congressional districts in California, especially in the Central Valley and Orange County, causing the House to flip.

/end