Bit of a high-risk strategy, this one. https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1306164694210826241

(I mean, it also makes me want to bang my head against something hard, both for the flagwaving itself and for the mindboggling levels of cynicism involved, but one thing at a time.)

High-risk strategy, as I say. Why?

The thing is, considering that there's still a solid 40% of people saying they'd vote Conservative tomorrow, and considering that the Lib Dems' poll ratings are in the toilet, there's an obvious answer to the question of where Labour's improved polling has come from.

And it sure as hell isn't from people who voted to Get Brexit Done.

There have been 90 opinion polls since the 2019 election. Precisely one of those has shown Labour with
a) 40% of the vote
b) equal with the Tories

Precisely none have had the Tories below 40%.

2019 election results (GB only):
Con 44.7%
Lab 32.9
LD 11.8
Green 2.8

Average of last 10 opinion polls:
Con 43.8 (-0.9)
Lab 37.7 (+4.8)
LD 6.9 (-4.9)
Green 4.3 (+1.5)

Starmer & co seem to be gambling that they can bank the Remainer vote and pivot to herding GBD voters back into the Labour fold.

But that's a hell of a pivot, and it won't necessarily be covered by reminders of Starmer's professionalism, competence, not being Corbyn, etc.

And, while Labour risk Remainer voters going to the Lib Dems under their inspirational new... well, their new leader, anyway... there's also a non-zero possibility that this move could alienate other groups of Labour voters.

Such as
anyone who's on the Left
OR regrets the way the Brexit vote went
OR looks at flagwaving in politics with mingled contempt and fear
OR doesn't care for the sheer cynicism of Mr Second Referendum rebadging himself as Captain Brexit
AND thinks Labour is better than that.

Or at least that we bloody well ought to be better than that - and, for a time, we bloody well *were* better than that.

Never forget Corbyn's statement after the Arena bombing. Never forget how the public - our grumpy, spiteful, Brexiteering British public - responded to it.

New Labour did a fair amount of flag-shagging back in 1997 - bulldogs, the whole bit. The odd thing about it is that, as far as we can tell, it didn't really work.

Under John Smith Labour had gone from 5 points behind in the polls to 20 points ahead. Blair briefly improved on that during 1995, but the lead was in the low to mid-20s (e.g. 52 plays 30) all through 1996.

Then the election was called (cue bulldogs, among much else), and Labour's poll lead dropped to the mid-teens; on the day itself we got 43.2% to the Tories 30.7%.

So there's no evidence that anything New Labour did *during the campaign* helped in the slightest. They went into the election sitting on a huge poll lead, and they won the election with a considerably smaller (but still substantial) lead.

Whereas we went from 25% in the polls from 40% after Corbyn made a coherent statement of an anti-imperialist political position, which most observers thought was electoral suicide.

So, y'know, learn from successful tactics, What Works and all that.

[braces for incoming after associating 'Corbyn' and 'successful']

[NB I will mute]