1. Methinks the Tory no deal plan B involves junking the WA with a view to weakening Ireland's place in the single market. The #InternalMarketBill essentially grants the UK government licence to place goods on the EU single market without authorisation. ...

2. It is assumed Ireland is then forced to put controls along the border - but it won't, invested so much politically in saying that can't happen. Instead it will institute certain behind the border controls notionally for the entire union, but in practice only for Ireland.

3. More than likely this will result in more stringent checks for goods travelling between Ireland and the mainland EU, instituting a market surveillance system where trucks will be inspected on the basis of risk. They'll soon work out which regular loads are kosher.

4. What we'll see is tiered mitigation from the EU, meanwhile it will give UK goods a higher risk rating leading to more frequent inspections and delays, hardening up customs in Calais. Basically, the more the UK takes the piss, in Ireland, the more problematic Calais becomes.

5. The Tories more than likely believe that isolating Ireland (which pumping money into Irish eurosceptic groups through back channels) they can force Ireland into the UK regulatory orbit, which could in limited ways work, but will face fierce political opposition from Dublin.

6. Dublin will then see to it that the favour is returned in kind, where the UK finds its own broader overseas policy sabotaged by the EU. It seems far fetched but these things can spiral like that and the Tories really are stupid enough to try it on.

7. Ultimately, if the UK does bin the WA then we can expect it to lead to a wider trade war, and with Irish influence being what it is in the USA, I don't doubt for a minute Nancy Pelosi and the democrats will give any USUK deal a mauling as it goes through congress.

8. I'm not sure this has sunk in, but even if the deal does pass, the democrats can disrupt the functioning of it. At that point the UK finds itself without formal trade relations with either the USA or the EU. This is not a position we want to be in.

9. But then this theory is predicated on the ERG lunacy holding sway in Number Ten. That's not necessarily the case. They must have gamed it and realised this doesn;t end well. Thus if we are giving them the benefit of the doubt then we have to assume this is all bluff.

10. That then gives some credibility to the notion that they are simply arming themselves with the powers to use as a threat - or a negotiating ploy - thinking the EU would have to install a land border in Ireland thus are afraid of no deal.

11. That suggests that they haven't understood the EU at all. They would never be so blunt as to simply install a border. They'll play the long game, compensating Ireland for any trade diversion by way of thought mainland controls, then quietly throttle the UK into submission.

12. Nor particularly will it influence their position in trade talks. They are more likely to simply revert to their original draft offer with a take or leave it ultimatum at the end of October, where the Oaf has to decide - deal or no deal. They are not going to be blamed.