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GW1 Captaincy selection : Salah (c) 20 pts = 40 pts 
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For some weeks ive been working on a model to try and select the right captain after my abysmal showing last year.
Looking into it in a little more detail... what rules did i apply? #FPL #GFCT
For some weeks ive been working on a model to try and select the right captain after my abysmal showing last year.
Looking into it in a little more detail... what rules did i apply? #FPL #GFCT
Rules
1. No player selected less than 8.5 M in value as candidate
2. No player outside of big 7 considered (Ings excepted being a talisman)
What other factors go into the decision?
1. No player selected less than 8.5 M in value as candidate
2. No player outside of big 7 considered (Ings excepted being a talisman)
What other factors go into the decision?
Captaincy Candidate Points
How many hauls 10+ pts in last 12 fixtures (33% weight)
How many returns 4+ in the last 12 fixtures (66% weight)
This gave the top 3 candidates.
1. Mane 44.0
2. Salah 44.0
3. Auba 35.8
and what else?
How many hauls 10+ pts in last 12 fixtures (33% weight)
How many returns 4+ in the last 12 fixtures (66% weight)
This gave the top 3 candidates.
1. Mane 44.0
2. Salah 44.0
3. Auba 35.8
and what else?
Captain Candidacy Returns v Xi
Count backs on form vary Ie I count back 12 fixtures for a 12 Million player
From this i compare the number of returns against Xi over the season 2019/20 (for now)
This flips the order in isolation
1. Auba
2. Ings
3. Kane
And finally FDR
Count backs on form vary Ie I count back 12 fixtures for a 12 Million player
From this i compare the number of returns against Xi over the season 2019/20 (for now)
This flips the order in isolation
1. Auba
2. Ings
3. Kane
And finally FDR
Captain Candidacy : Fixture difficulty @BenCrellin
Mane and Salah had the easiest fixture on paper v Leeds at Home, Kane and Son 2nd and Auba/ Vardy 3rd.
Now to mash it all together and come up with a selection
Mane and Salah had the easiest fixture on paper v Leeds at Home, Kane and Son 2nd and Auba/ Vardy 3rd.
Now to mash it all together and come up with a selection
Why are players highlighted?, well i own them (i chose Salah over Mane purely on FOMO)
Weighting
20% Points , likelihood of haul v return etc.
20% Form, recent performance v Xi 2019/20
60% Fixtures. this was partially rubber stamped by @JoshuaABull lecture
drum roll..
Weighting
20% Points , likelihood of haul v return etc.
20% Form, recent performance v Xi 2019/20
60% Fixtures. this was partially rubber stamped by @JoshuaABull lecture
drum roll..
GW1 Selection was made as follows..
1. Salah 88.7
2. Auba 83.3
A close call but the Egyptian got it, as it happened both returned.
but what about the others?
1. Salah 88.7
2. Auba 83.3
A close call but the Egyptian got it, as it happened both returned.
but what about the others?
This is of course where the luck comes in, but if you use the simple 8.5 rule and top 7 you come up with
1 x Return 67%
2 x Return 22.2%
Blank 33%
1 x Return 67%
2 x Return 22.2%
Blank 33%
Caveat, Work in Progress
would i have shared this is Salah blanked - YES....
lets see how it does over the season?
... GOOD LUCK after all a lot of FPL is exactly that.
GW2 selection posted on Friday.
thoughts welcome if you like it pls RT
would i have shared this is Salah blanked - YES....
lets see how it does over the season?
... GOOD LUCK after all a lot of FPL is exactly that.
GW2 selection posted on Friday.
thoughts welcome if you like it pls RT
