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In five days (September 20), the number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 will exceed 201,157. Why is this significant? (1/9)
As of today (September 15), the number of people who have died from COVID-19 in the United States is between 195,727 (John Hopkins CSSE, top) and 200,197 (Worldometer, bottom). The average of the two is 197,962. (2/9)
Per Worldometer, 6,167 people in the US have died from COVID-19 in the past seven days, an average of almost 881 per day. The 7-day moving average is decreasing, so for this thread I am using an average of 750 per day. (3/9)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
By September 20, it is likely that the total number of deaths will be:
197,962 + (750/day x 5 days) = 201,712
(4/9)
197,962 + (750/day x 5 days) = 201,712
(4/9)
On February 6, the first COVID-19 death was recorded in Santa Clara county in California. This was more than a month earlier than preliminary findings in Washington state. (5/9) https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/first-us-covid-19-deaths-happened-weeks-earlier-than-thought-67457
Per the CDC, the number of influenza deaths in the 2019-2020 season is estimated between 24,000 & 62,000. The midpoint value of 43,000 would still be higher than the previous four-year average, but this thread will assume it to be at least 45,000 (6/9) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
The total number of influenza deaths over the past five seasons, including the estimate of 45,000 for 2019-2020: (7/9)
2015-2016: 23,000
2016-2017: 38,000
2017-2018: 61,000
2018-2019: 34,157
2019-2020: 45,000
============
Total: 201,157
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
2015-2016: 23,000
2016-2017: 38,000
2017-2018: 61,000
2018-2019: 34,157
2019-2020: 45,000
============
Total: 201,157
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
This means that in JUST OVER SEVEN MONTHS (Feb 9-Sept 20), more people in the United States have died from COVID-19 than from influenza over THE PAST FIVE YEARS. That's a rate over 8½ times higher than the flu.
(8/9)
(8/9)
There are no superlatives I can add to demonstrate how serious this is. While numbers and evidence are important, these represent human lives that have been lost. Do what you can to minimize the spread. (9/9)
