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1/ Until this weekend, I wasn't as confident in Trump's victory as I was in 2016. On Thursday, I was at about 80%. By Sunday night, I was at 100%. In other words, I'm exactly as confident in Trump's reelection as I was in his election in 2016.
2/ In Sept. 2016, I did a podcast with @KMGVictoria. Toward the end, KMG asked me to predict the election. I said that I was completely certain Trump would win, & that he'd win "Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida & North Carolina" & get 310 electoral votes. Breddy Gud.
3/ I mention my accurate 2016 prognostication simply to prove that I was completely confident in Trump's victory in the run-up to November 2016. I could feel it.
I'm feeling exactly the same way right now. I can feel it.
I'm feeling exactly the same way right now. I can feel it.
4/ Until this weekend, 3 things had held me back. The first is that Trump's campaign message & focus seemed off, like he was just missing the target in his speeches and ads.
The second was that, while the enthusiasm for him seemed strong, it didn't seem as strong as 4 years ago
The second was that, while the enthusiasm for him seemed strong, it didn't seem as strong as 4 years ago
5/The third is--and may Allah forgive me--the polling doesn't look good. (Trump is not running behind 2016 in polls, so much as Biden is running better than Hillary. Supposedly, there are fewer undecideds and they've mostly broken for Joe.)
6/This weekend's Nevada rallies were as good as any in 2016. Trump was blasting away w/ both barrels & the crowd was way amped up. So the first two conditions have been satisfied. Trump has sharpened his message, "Make America Great Again, Again" & the MAGA'ians are going nuts.
7/As for the polls, the reason the polls were making me nervous is that I remember the 2018 midterms, & how I was discounting polls, thinking the GOP would beat the polling. But, unlike 2016, in 2018 the polls were accurate. I kept thinking, "what if Nate Silver is right again?"
8/Then I started seeing the crowds & watching how they react to Trump, & I'm all, "F the pollsters". Trump's voters would crawl through Hell to vote for him. I know I would.
9/It was the enthusiasm that convinced me to ignore the polls in 2016.
It's the enthusiasm that's convinced me to ignore the polls in 2020.
It's the enthusiasm that's convinced me to ignore the polls in 2020.
10/But beyond enthusiasm, I also figured out It's not just that the pollsters are cooking the books, it's that they're also using traditional turnout models that don't account for the insane enthusiasm of Trump's white, working-class voters.
11/ The Democrats nabobs have repeatedly said that non-college white males who didn't vote in 2016 are the Dems nightmare scenario for 2020.
There are 495,000 of those in Wisconsin... https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/trump-wisconsin-white-working-class-men-2020-democrats.html
There are 495,000 of those in Wisconsin... https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/trump-wisconsin-white-working-class-men-2020-democrats.html
12/ There are 250,000 in Minnesota... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/01/2020-minnesota-trump-406280
13/ And 1.6 million(!) non-college, non-2016-voting whites in Michigan... https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/team-trump-targets-hidden-white-working-class-voters-who-skipped-2016-race
14/ Trump and Parscale and others have said Trump's campaign has been targeting this group and Hispanics.
He's going to juice the turnout of working-class whites.
He's going to juice the turnout of working-class whites.
15/ And, SHAZAM! Look at this... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/16/trump-campaign-voter-turnout-115338
16/ We've been talking for a week or so about Trump's massive vote in an uncontested primary. He got 18 million votes this year. Compare that to Barry O who got 9 million in 2012.
But, look at this paragraph from that Politico article in the last tweet.
But, look at this paragraph from that Politico article in the last tweet.
17/Here's the key quote...
"The massive turnout is a reflection of organic enthusiasm among conservatives and a sophisticated effort by Trump's campaign to rev up its get-out-the-vote machine ahead of the general election."
"The massive turnout is a reflection of organic enthusiasm among conservatives and a sophisticated effort by Trump's campaign to rev up its get-out-the-vote machine ahead of the general election."
18/ In other words, Trump has built a killer turnout machine and already taken it for a spin, during the primaries.
His Excellency President Donald John Trump has a plan to win this election based on turning out working class whites.
And he's going to pull it off!
His Excellency President Donald John Trump has a plan to win this election based on turning out working class whites.
And he's going to pull it off!
19/ I believe Biden's turnout will be good this year, he'll get more votes than any losing candidate in history, but he'll be totally swamped by Trump's white proles.
It's going to be a landslide.
It's going to be a landslide.
20/ Good old boys who've never voted are going to come out of the hills to vote for the Donald.
States will flip that will make Democrats wail with pain. (Colorado & Nevada! ...New York?) This is going to be like last year's election in the UK. A totally unexpected total rout.
States will flip that will make Democrats wail with pain. (Colorado & Nevada! ...New York?) This is going to be like last year's election in the UK. A totally unexpected total rout.
21/ Also, don't worry about mail-in ballot fraud. Most 20-somethings have never even put an envelope in a mailbox, & can't be relied upon to do it this time. Even if they do, Trump is going to be so far outside the margin of fraud that it's going to all be over early on Nov 3rd.
22/ Going forward, the polls are going to tighten slightly in October & Trump will continue to run behind. Don't worry about that. Look at enthusiasm & gauge how you feel about voting for Trump. If someone told you your polling place was on fire, would you still demand to vote?
23/ Watch those Trump Thunder Runs, thousands of pickup trucks, Trump flags flapping in the wind, Lee Greenwood on the stereo.
The Biden campaign's internal polls, which use different turnout models, will also show what's happening.
The Biden campaign's internal polls, which use different turnout models, will also show what's happening.
24/ Soon, you'll see the Biden people start to act defeated and panicky. Unlike Hillary, they won't be thinking they've got it in the bag. They'll know that Trump is winning.
25/ As the reality settles in, the press, as they've already done, will start floating explanations for Biden's loss, even as the public polls continue to show him ahead.
Watch for the signs. You'll see what I mean.
Watch for the signs. You'll see what I mean.
26/Finally, if you can help get some Trump people to the polls, do it. Talk to your mechanic and HVAC guy, remind them that Trump needs their help to kick the ass of global shitlibery.
Do your part, citizen.
Do your part, citizen.
27/
tl;dr: It's happening. Trump is going to win, bigly. Do what you can to help make the victory bigger.
/end
tl;dr: It's happening. Trump is going to win, bigly. Do what you can to help make the victory bigger.
/end
