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For all the "PDP is on sale" folks out there, I have seen two $20MM+ PDP transactions -- one in shale, the other conventional -- that have transacted at PDP PV-7 and PDP PV-0, respectively.
Lots of money out there still. Between the "Big 3" PE funds, there is likely another $10 billion in dry powder out there. That's equivalent to OXY's market cap and bigger than Concho. RBL debt cost you 3% right now.
When interest rates are zero, there ain't no such thing as a free lunch because everyone bids up asset prices. Banks are likley to kick the can again in fall redeterminations because if they crystallize losses, it is a permanent capital loss. Very different from the late 80's.
Why? If a bank realized a loss of, say, 60% on $100MM in the late 80's, they could loan out the same amount of principal and recover that loss in 4 years (15% interest rates). The same loss would take 20 years to recover now (3% interest rates).
I hope I'm wrong, and we get to see some transactions moving at reasonable prices in the future. But this looks like there is still a long road ahead for O&G investors, unfortunately.
