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OK. So, this normalization of relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain could maybe use a little unpacking because everyone is trying to jam their analysis into one tweet and a bunch of different things can be true about this event at the same.
First of all, it& #39;s a big deal. Just because you don& #39;t like Trump or Bibi or these particular Arab countries doesn& #39;t invalidate what& #39;s happening or render it unimportant. Establishing formal relationships is good for the people who live there and could yield more such agreements.
Second of all, Trump is going to take a lot of the credit for this, even if it was in the works for a long time and even if he didn& #39;t actually do anything at all to make it happen. Maybe his administration did and maybe it didn& #39;t, but he and his supporters will say he made peace.
Third, no, he didn& #39;t. This isn& #39;t a peace deal because these countries weren& #39;t at war. It& #39;s not chopped liver, as I wrote above, but it& #39;s really not a peace agreement. Should Trump get the Nobel Peace Prize for being President when a normalization agreement happened? I don& #39;t care.
This agreement doesn& #39;t solve anything with regard to Israel& #39;s biggest foreign policy issues: Iran and the Palestinians. It arises, in no small part, because all of these countries are aligning themselves against Iran, so it& #39;s a kind of formalized enemy-of-my-enemy thing.
My sense is the JCPOA had a lot to do with where we are today and it would be in everyone& #39;s interests if the US got back on board with the nuclear deal because a nuclear Iran is bad news for the region. Trump& #39;s sanctions haven& #39;t solved this problem whereas the JCPOA could help.
As for the Palestinians, it remains crucial for Israel to make some sort of decision about its own future. It& #39;s a dangerous fiction that it& #39;s possible to perpetually put off the establishment of a Palestinian state, continue to expand West Bank settlements, and tease annexation.
In the long run, it will be literally impossible for Israel to remain a Jewish democratic state if Israeli governments continue on their ongoing do-nothing-and-see-what-happens path. A just and lasting peace with the Palestinians isn& #39;t any closer as a result of today& #39;s agreement.
