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OK. So, this normalization of relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain could maybe use a little unpacking because everyone is trying to jam their analysis into one tweet and a bunch of different things can be true about this event at the same.
First of all, it's a big deal. Just because you don't like Trump or Bibi or these particular Arab countries doesn't invalidate what's happening or render it unimportant. Establishing formal relationships is good for the people who live there and could yield more such agreements.
Second of all, Trump is going to take a lot of the credit for this, even if it was in the works for a long time and even if he didn't actually do anything at all to make it happen. Maybe his administration did and maybe it didn't, but he and his supporters will say he made peace.
Third, no, he didn't. This isn't a peace deal because these countries weren't at war. It's not chopped liver, as I wrote above, but it's really not a peace agreement. Should Trump get the Nobel Peace Prize for being President when a normalization agreement happened? I don't care.
This agreement doesn't solve anything with regard to Israel's biggest foreign policy issues: Iran and the Palestinians. It arises, in no small part, because all of these countries are aligning themselves against Iran, so it's a kind of formalized enemy-of-my-enemy thing.
My sense is the JCPOA had a lot to do with where we are today and it would be in everyone's interests if the US got back on board with the nuclear deal because a nuclear Iran is bad news for the region. Trump's sanctions haven't solved this problem whereas the JCPOA could help.
As for the Palestinians, it remains crucial for Israel to make some sort of decision about its own future. It's a dangerous fiction that it's possible to perpetually put off the establishment of a Palestinian state, continue to expand West Bank settlements, and tease annexation.
In the long run, it will be literally impossible for Israel to remain a Jewish democratic state if Israeli governments continue on their ongoing do-nothing-and-see-what-happens path. A just and lasting peace with the Palestinians isn't any closer as a result of today's agreement.
Recap: this is a big deal and worth celebrating even if it's not actually a peace deal but instead official confirmation of relationships that have been in process behind the scenes for many years. It's a victory for Trump, especially because he'll make more of it than he should.
But it doesn't solve Israel's thorniest foreign policy problems; it just accepts that they exist and pushes them off into the future, as politicians have been doing for a long, long time at this point. Maybe the next President and next Prime Minister can work on those issues.
