Read on Twitter
This is deeply pseudoscientific and dangerous rubbish. I wouldn't normally amplify, but in this case given the public health emergency I've made an exception.
The full version is here:
Otherwise let's take it apart here: /thread https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1303704826287718400
The full version is here:
Otherwise let's take it apart here: /thread https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1303704826287718400
0:36 - Straight out of the gate we get a graph of deaths due to COVID in UK, Italy, Ireland and Sweden.
Ivor claims this is 'entirely in line with influenza'.
This is from the CDC showing the typical flu season: It ends in March, not begins, and very rarely extends into spring.
Ivor claims this is 'entirely in line with influenza'.
This is from the CDC showing the typical flu season: It ends in March, not begins, and very rarely extends into spring.
0:55 points to this and labels it a 'Gompertz Curve'. It isn't, but the deeper point is that implies a natural end to growth, rather than an external force.
1:11 then explodes into claiming that 80% of the population are ALREADY immune to coronavirus through 'T-cell' cross-immunity.
This is wrong on so many levels:
This is wrong on so many levels:
FIRSTLY, if 80% of the population WERE ALREADY IMMUNE, then that IS herd immunity - ie the virus COULDN'T SPREAD, and we certainly wouldn't see exponential growth in cases and deaths like we have seen. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808
SECONDLY, T-cells are a different part of the immune system to antibodies, and it is theorized that COVID could produce T-cell immunity instead of antibody-mediated immunity.
This has NOT however been shown to be protective at this point: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201833/cell-immunity-what-does-help-protect/
This has NOT however been shown to be protective at this point: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201833/cell-immunity-what-does-help-protect/
FURTHER, some studies have looked at T-cells we already have to the 'common cold' coronaviruses that do circulate but this is only 20-50% of people, nowhere near 80%.
Again, there is NO EVIDENCE that this type of 'cross-reaction' = immunity to COVID 19.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
Again, there is NO EVIDENCE that this type of 'cross-reaction' = immunity to COVID 19.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
THIRDLY, SARS COV 2 (COVID19) is similar to SARS (another coronavirus) but not very similar to other coronaviruses. Here's a pretty genome from the same paper:
FOURTHLY, despite NO EVIDENCE, Ivor then tells us that the virus passed through 20% of the SUSCEPTIBLE population and that's why deaths came down.
Again, this makes no sense if 80% of the population is already immune.
Again, this makes no sense if 80% of the population is already immune.
And FIFTHLY, if 20% of the population of the UK were infected, that's 14 MILLION people, and we have seen 5-10% of people needing intensive care, which is 700,000 people at the lowest estimate.
In a country with only 8000 ICU beds we obviously didn't see that.
In a country with only 8000 ICU beds we obviously didn't see that.
And SIXTHLY (?!), Ivor completely forgets to add the timing of lockdowns to his graph, so let me:
Phew.
Also Sweden.
Sweden DID lockdown, but it wasn't mandatory.
-they banned mass gatherings in early March, reduced travel and shielded 70s
-secondary schools were distance learning as were universites
-travel in Stockholm dropped by 50%, spending 25%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_government_response_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic
Also Sweden.
Sweden DID lockdown, but it wasn't mandatory.
-they banned mass gatherings in early March, reduced travel and shielded 70s
-secondary schools were distance learning as were universites
-travel in Stockholm dropped by 50%, spending 25%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_government_response_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic
Sweden GDP dropped by 8%. And they had a far higher excess deaths than most of their Nordic counterparts. But we'll come back to that I'm sure.
2 10: Ivor suggests this 'immunity' pattern is what happened with Spanish Flu epidemics - but neglects to add the second wave, which kind of contradicts that immunity theory, so here it is side by side.
3 08: He then moves on to EuroMoMo and extrapolates some numbers from these select groups to claim that 2020 excess death is the same as 2018.
Firstly, this is the Pooled Deaths curve, NOT excess death, which is obviously fair greater (~2x).
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
Firstly, this is the Pooled Deaths curve, NOT excess death, which is obviously fair greater (~2x).
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
I wasn't going to dwell, but this graph is ridiculous, as he is circling the SUMMER as the 'flu season' and then claiming COVID started in the Winter (in March).
5 35 Ivor claims these are from 'Imperial'. Neither are. The graph on the right is actually from this paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdf
And to be fair, they got it wrong. But we could look at that if he hadn't told us Corona Pogue wrote it.
And to be fair, they got it wrong. But we could look at that if he hadn't told us Corona Pogue wrote it.
Additionally the Imperial College London unit DID accurately model Sweden at the end of March - the paper is here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-13-europe-npi-impact/
See, Science!
See, Science!
It's a long video - if you've had enough I can relate. I'm going to take a break here too.
Welcome back.
6:21 - we are told Sweden had very 'minimal distancing' - as we discussed already this is simply untrue.
-Stockholm travel reduced by 50%, (London by around 60-70%. )
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic
-50% Worked from Home. Gatherings/travel were avoided.
-GDP dropped 8%
6:21 - we are told Sweden had very 'minimal distancing' - as we discussed already this is simply untrue.
-Stockholm travel reduced by 50%, (London by around 60-70%. )
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic
-50% Worked from Home. Gatherings/travel were avoided.
-GDP dropped 8%
Another claim Sweden establish 'community immunity' - https://www.rsm.ac.uk/media-releases/2020/covid-19-herd-immunity-in-sweden-fails-to-materialise/ - at most it looks like 15% so far.
This is on Antibody data - nobody has measured T cell immunity significantly or demonstrated it's protective.
So either way, this is rubbish.
This is on Antibody data - nobody has measured T cell immunity significantly or demonstrated it's protective.
So either way, this is rubbish.
7:42 So let's talk about Spanish Flu. This is a graph of deaths/million 1850 - now.
1856 - Cholera (I think)
1918- Spanish Flu
2020 - COVID
Interestingly, 1918 they took nearly NO measures at all: https://www.thelocal.se/20200513/how-did-sweden-tackle-the-spanish-flu whereas that tiny spike is with good distancing.
1856 - Cholera (I think)
1918- Spanish Flu
2020 - COVID
Interestingly, 1918 they took nearly NO measures at all: https://www.thelocal.se/20200513/how-did-sweden-tackle-the-spanish-flu whereas that tiny spike is with good distancing.
Ivor misses this point.
Also the infection fatality rate of COVID is thought to be around 0.6%, which is the same as the Spanish Flu outbreak (5.8m infected, 34500 dead) - so actually this is a great example of lockdown working vs 1918 when they didn't do anything.
Lol.
Also the infection fatality rate of COVID is thought to be around 0.6%, which is the same as the Spanish Flu outbreak (5.8m infected, 34500 dead) - so actually this is a great example of lockdown working vs 1918 when they didn't do anything.
Lol.
9:27 Ivor then shows some squiggly lines and tells us that as less people died in the summer, MORE people will die in the winter.
The same graphs demonstrate no such effect in previous years, but this doesn't get mentioned.
The same graphs demonstrate no such effect in previous years, but this doesn't get mentioned.
10:29
We then get this graph, falsely attributed to David Spiegelhalter (it's actually from Dr Chris Hope) claiming the intensity of previous flu seasons fully explains the number of COVID deaths.
The graph shows the association is actually weak. R=0.3.
https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/insight/2020/flu-and-coronavirus/
We then get this graph, falsely attributed to David Spiegelhalter (it's actually from Dr Chris Hope) claiming the intensity of previous flu seasons fully explains the number of COVID deaths.
The graph shows the association is actually weak. R=0.3.
https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/insight/2020/flu-and-coronavirus/
11:03
We then get a claim that lock-down isn't important, with this paper from some economists that says "maybe" this, MAYBE that, it MIGHT have this.
If anything Sweden's LOWER population density than many countries should've meant far LESS deaths. MAYBE.
We then get a claim that lock-down isn't important, with this paper from some economists that says "maybe" this, MAYBE that, it MIGHT have this.
If anything Sweden's LOWER population density than many countries should've meant far LESS deaths. MAYBE.
12:41
Ivor then claims pubs opening has had no effect on deaths. Well it would appear it HAS had an effect, along with other measures, on CASES.
And who was going to pubs? Did your 80-year old gran rush out for a pint on 4th July? No.
Hence the no change in death, yet.
Ivor then claims pubs opening has had no effect on deaths. Well it would appear it HAS had an effect, along with other measures, on CASES.
And who was going to pubs? Did your 80-year old gran rush out for a pint on 4th July? No.
Hence the no change in death, yet.
15 :06 (I've skipped forward as life is too short)
The evidence for lockdowns.
It's true full lockdown hasn't been shown to significantly associate with mortality, yet. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
Early lockdown WAS linked to improved recovery, and early quarantine to TOTAL CASES.
The evidence for lockdowns.
It's true full lockdown hasn't been shown to significantly associate with mortality, yet. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
Early lockdown WAS linked to improved recovery, and early quarantine to TOTAL CASES.
If you can control the spread without closing shops, ie with proper social distancing, masks, hand hygiene, then potentially closing shops etc won't add much.
However if you can't do that, what else can you do?
The paper discusses it's limitations: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
However if you can't do that, what else can you do?
The paper discusses it's limitations: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
Secondly, IVOR claims that healthcare workers aren't at increased risk, according to ONS data.
THIS study contradicts that, with 2.4x risk in healthcare workers, and about half the risk (less) in ICU workers (due to full PPE). https://elifesciences.org/articles/60675
THIS study contradicts that, with 2.4x risk in healthcare workers, and about half the risk (less) in ICU workers (due to full PPE). https://elifesciences.org/articles/60675
16:37
Ah. Masks. Ivor claims there is no evidence they prevent infection, quoting analysis of randomized controlled trials.
There is a lot of systematic reviews on masks which show they ARE effective:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext
&
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/65/11/1934/4068747
paging @trishgreenhalgh
Ah. Masks. Ivor claims there is no evidence they prevent infection, quoting analysis of randomized controlled trials.
There is a lot of systematic reviews on masks which show they ARE effective:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext
&
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/65/11/1934/4068747
paging @trishgreenhalgh
18:11
Then we get a claim that the data of mask implementation somehow proves they don't work, by pointing at countries that implement policies AFTER the worst of the first wave.
Firstly, when PREVALENCE of the virus is LOW, interventions like MASKS won't have a large effect.
Then we get a claim that the data of mask implementation somehow proves they don't work, by pointing at countries that implement policies AFTER the worst of the first wave.
Firstly, when PREVALENCE of the virus is LOW, interventions like MASKS won't have a large effect.
And we can all play this game. One of the earliest mandates for masks was in Vietnam, that had the best control of the virus in the WORLD, with very little resources. Here's another graph for Ivor's collection.
SEASONALITY.
19:08
I'm just going to summarise:
-Despite having argued that we are all immune (see point 1) Ivor then directly contradicts himself and claims we should expect to see seasonal COVID-19, but fails to tell us what happened to that 80% T-cell cross immunity we had.
19:08
I'm just going to summarise:
-Despite having argued that we are all immune (see point 1) Ivor then directly contradicts himself and claims we should expect to see seasonal COVID-19, but fails to tell us what happened to that 80% T-cell cross immunity we had.
24:20
THE CASEDEMIC.
Again I'm going to summarise:
Ivor claims we have nothing to worry about, as cases are rising simply because of MORE PCR testing.
There's so much wrong with this I need a lie down before attempting it.
THE CASEDEMIC.
Again I'm going to summarise:
Ivor claims we have nothing to worry about, as cases are rising simply because of MORE PCR testing.
There's so much wrong with this I need a lie down before attempting it.
Okay firstly, the major argument here has been this story about 'dead virus' driving cases. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54000629
Essentially they took positive swabs and tried to grow live virus in culture, and found many couldn't. Concluding we are picking up inactive viruses in SOME swabs.
Essentially they took positive swabs and tried to grow live virus in culture, and found many couldn't. Concluding we are picking up inactive viruses in SOME swabs.
This is interesting, but we haven't changed our methodology recently in the UK. So isn't useful to explain the cases.
We also AREN'T DOING MORE TESTS. August 1st - we did 175,000. September 1st - we did 190,000.
Cases rose by 292% and continue to rise.
We also AREN'T DOING MORE TESTS. August 1st - we did 175,000. September 1st - we did 190,000.
Cases rose by 292% and continue to rise.
He also claims this must be true as we have seen NO IMPACT on hospitalisations. This is just wrong.
In the UK in the past fortnight we have seen COVID hospitalisations TRIPLE the daily rate and DOUBLE the hospital admitted population.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
In the UK in the past fortnight we have seen COVID hospitalisations TRIPLE the daily rate and DOUBLE the hospital admitted population.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
31:23
Ivor then finishes by telling us a rise in COVID again is normal anyway, and confuses COVID deaths with winter excess death.
He then claims we should get immunity in the summer....A fifth?! contradictory explanation for where immunity comes from.
Ivor then finishes by telling us a rise in COVID again is normal anyway, and confuses COVID deaths with winter excess death.
He then claims we should get immunity in the summer....A fifth?! contradictory explanation for where immunity comes from.
I'm actually going to stop there, except for this last phrase, which actually made me feel a bit sick.
"people pushing this would have blood on their hands next winter".
Okay. Real talk.
"people pushing this would have blood on their hands next winter".
Okay. Real talk.
We are living in a pandemic, a public health emergency.
For most of us we will shrug off the virus with no problem, but very many of us will die or suffer long-term health problems of a PREVENTABLE disease.
All we have to protect ourselves is our behaviors.
For most of us we will shrug off the virus with no problem, but very many of us will die or suffer long-term health problems of a PREVENTABLE disease.
All we have to protect ourselves is our behaviors.
We lost over 600 colleagues in this country, over 50,000 fellow men and women, and stand to lose a lot more if we don't rapidly cut this pseudoscience shit out and start working together. If we all washed our hands, wore masks, kept our distance, and avoided unnecessary travel...
...it would be under control and we could reopen the economy, protect the hospitals and get back to normal life.
I've seen first hand the lives saved by lockdown and our sacrifices in March. So much was lost. That CANNOT be all for naught.
I've seen first hand the lives saved by lockdown and our sacrifices in March. So much was lost. That CANNOT be all for naught.
So summary:
- Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor is a charlatan, and please tell everyone you know and see on social media
- this pseudoscientific BS will get PEOPLE KILLED.
- Listen to the guidelines, take care of each other, be kind, and STAY INFORMED.
Okay now I need a drink. /end
- Ivor Cummins @FatEmperor is a charlatan, and please tell everyone you know and see on social media
- this pseudoscientific BS will get PEOPLE KILLED.
- Listen to the guidelines, take care of each other, be kind, and STAY INFORMED.
Okay now I need a drink. /end
