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How to understand the big Israel-Bahrain/UAE deals?
Today Trump will preside over normalization accords between Israel and Bahrain and UAE.
Let’s unpack this:
One: Is this a good thing?
In terms of reducing tensions between Israel and these Arab governments—certainly yes.
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Today Trump will preside over normalization accords between Israel and Bahrain and UAE.
Let’s unpack this:
One: Is this a good thing?
In terms of reducing tensions between Israel and these Arab governments—certainly yes.
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Two: But does this represent a shift in Arab-Israeli relations?
Absolutely. A number of Arab governments are now willing to bypass the PLO and build relations directly with Israel that suits their interests.
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Absolutely. A number of Arab governments are now willing to bypass the PLO and build relations directly with Israel that suits their interests.
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Three: But is this likely to be the warm peace that Israelis have long desired?
Probably not. Neither Bahrain nor the UAE are democracies.
In fact their Freedom House rankings are among the lowest in the world
Bahrain 11/100 (same as Gaza). UAE 17/100 (same as Iran).
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Probably not. Neither Bahrain nor the UAE are democracies.
In fact their Freedom House rankings are among the lowest in the world
Bahrain 11/100 (same as Gaza). UAE 17/100 (same as Iran).
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Four: Neither of the two most democratic Arab countries Tunisia-70 or Lebanon-44 are ready to make peace with Israel.
https://freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=fiw&year=2020
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https://freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=fiw&year=2020
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Five: So what’s the big deal?
-PR win for Israeli PM Netanyahu does bring normalization deals—potentially lucrative.
-PR wins for Bahrain & UAE which no longer wanted to be tied to Saudi’s sinking fortunes in DC.
-And of course a big pre-election boost for Trump!
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-PR win for Israeli PM Netanyahu does bring normalization deals—potentially lucrative.
-PR wins for Bahrain & UAE which no longer wanted to be tied to Saudi’s sinking fortunes in DC.
-And of course a big pre-election boost for Trump!
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Six: But what about the Palestinians?
-Their leadership feels angry; betrayed by Arab states.
- But maybe it's better that the Palestinian quest for freedom Not be based on the illusion of Arab Goverment support.
-So maybe this is good for them
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-Their leadership feels angry; betrayed by Arab states.
- But maybe it's better that the Palestinian quest for freedom Not be based on the illusion of Arab Goverment support.
-So maybe this is good for them
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Seven: Anything else? Yep, always a catch.
In 2015 @JohnKerry got Israel to recommit the age-old status quo on key Jerusalem holy site know as the Haram Al Sharif/Temple Mount: "Muslims pray on the Temple Mount; non-Muslims visit the Temple Mount."
https://mfa.gov.il/MFA/PressRoom/2015/Pages/Statement-by-PM-Netanyahu-regarding-the-Temple-Mount-24-Oct-2015.aspx
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In 2015 @JohnKerry got Israel to recommit the age-old status quo on key Jerusalem holy site know as the Haram Al Sharif/Temple Mount: "Muslims pray on the Temple Mount; non-Muslims visit the Temple Mount."
https://mfa.gov.il/MFA/PressRoom/2015/Pages/Statement-by-PM-Netanyahu-regarding-the-Temple-Mount-24-Oct-2015.aspx
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Eight: But there is speculation that the agreements will alter the US/Israeli agreement on this.
Instead press about accords says it will reduce the place designated for Muslim prayer from whole Temple Mount/Haram to the small Al Aqsa mosque-just a few percent of the space.
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Instead press about accords says it will reduce the place designated for Muslim prayer from whole Temple Mount/Haram to the small Al Aqsa mosque-just a few percent of the space.
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