About a decade ago a group of countries in Africa were thought to be on the verge of becoming rich from petroleum. In fresh #WB report with @thomasscurfield we analyzed how twelve such countries fared vs initial expectations (1/5)

The proven reserves per capita found (so far) in frontier is vastly lower for most than those of established petroleum producers in the region. In a third of cases, there was nothing viable found despite initial hopes. (2/5)

Experts also underestimated risks of delays. Projects have taken 73 percent longer (so far) to reach production than planned (3/5).

The revenue projections (mainly from IMF/WB) have also been consistently overoptimistic. Shortfall driven not just by oil price drop but also more modest production/taxing problems. (4/5)

Our #WorldBank WP with @NRGInstitute's @thomasscurfield provides more detail on twelve country's experience and detailed policy recommendations. https://bit.ly/3m5OuT0