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A thread on what I think the #Brexit mood is like in Brussels right now:
1. Two big problems: the internal market bill (as it stands) and the UK's weak subsidy regime. Both reduces chances of a #Brexit deal by the end of year. But, despite everything, EU still think a deal is possible - just. But only if WA is applied in full.
2. Internal market bill: PM sees it as a safety net. If the UK and the EU can't resolve their disagreements inside the joint committee, then the bill would give UK ministers the power to make unilateral decisions on how to proceed. Sounds sensible, but it still breaches WA. Why?
3. Internal market bill (2): For the EU, the fact that the government sees it as a safety net - that may never get used - makes no difference. Withdrawal Agreement is crystal clear: neither party should adopt measures to undermine it. So bill, as it stands, is a non-starter.
4. Trade talks: The EU has indicated it wd move on state aid *if* UK sets up a similar system to self-regulate its own use of subsidies. The UK’s decision to adopt a weak subsidy regime has not given the EU reassurances it was looking for.
[For more on subsidies, read this excellent @instituteforgov paper by my colleagues @tompope0 & @awstojanovic : https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/state-aid]
5. Harder EU27 position: If gov’s aim was to put pressure on the EU to soften its position, either over WA or trade talks, it has had the opposite effect. EU27 won't budge now if they think the UK will turn its back on joint commitments later. EU Parliament also playing hardball.
6. Keep calm & carry on, and prepare for all outcomes: JC meetings are paused. EU has given the UK until the end of the month to de-escalate tensions and modify the bill. But *it* has also said that it stands ready to launch legal proceedings if the UK refuses to shift its stance
7. Infringement procedures: incidentally, EU can launch infringement procedure for up to 4 years after the end of transition period if the breach is committed before or during the transition period. Which it wd be in this case.
8. A more acrimonious no deal: PM hopes the UK and EU can find “sensible accommodations" for issues not covered by WTO (looking at you flights, scientific coop etc). EU wd need to issue unilateral measures – but they are unlikely to be very generous if trust is low.
9. Compromise is key: if UK and EU are to reach a deal, *both sides* will need to compromise. But Barnier's task of persuading EU capitals is a *lot harder* if UK legislates for ways to breach WA - irrespective of whether it plans to use provisions or not.
10. Read the full thing here: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/uk-threats-break-international-law-make-brexit-deal-even-more-difficult
