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This is going to be a bit of a thread on a fall election. For the first time my best sense is we will be having an election this fall. Before the last few months I really thought this government was going to go until fall 2021. #bcpoli
My understanding is John Horgan is comfortable with calling a fall election and he has received advice from constitutional expelrts that the LG will accept his request for a fall election. #bcpoli
If the polls hold (especially the Metro Vancouver numbers) Horgan will sweep into power with a majority government and there are ridings in play the NDP never expected to win. #bcpoli
The NDP are targeting pick ups in Richmond, Surrey, Vancouver and the one in the Tri-Cities they don't hold. #bcpoli
Now let's talk about the actual campaign. Unlike campaigns of the past, there will be no rallies, no big events with stake holders and supporters and likely no media hoard. #bcpoli
The media part concerns me. A campaign can be covered well not on a campaign bus. But the election will have a hard time competing for air time with an ongoing pandemic. The public (rightly) will be more concerned about their own health than an election. #bcpoli #covid19bc
There is also little time for the media to profile Andrew Wilkinson. This is to Horgan's advantage. In 2017, Horgan received lots of pre-election coverage to introduce him to the public. Wilkinson will not get that same introduction. #bcpoli
Many reporters who have covered both the pandemic and the election will be split. As we get into an election the focus will clearly change. Horgan's team is well aware of this. #bcpoli
If you care about local nomination races, this will also be impacted. There are some interesting races shaping up but there won't be enough time be full local nomination races if the election is called soon. #bcpoli
