@BessemerVP recently released some of their investment memos ( https://www.bvp.com/memos ) providing an interesting set of case studies, and some insight into the venture thought process. Perhaps some of the key takeaways is the value of management and low-probability bets... https://twitter.com/borrowed_ideas/status/1305311577168633859

Like BVP notes, many of the household names we know today were totally different in their early days, having evolved in almost unpredictable ways. Few people - if any - could have predicted Amazon's AWS or Apple’s lead in smartphones...

But what might be more possible to predict was the opportunity these businesses had that others didn't, largely driven by the people at the helm. This is where investing becomes more of an art. Buffett met Gates and Bezos early enough, but passed on investing...

Investing is a game of understanding possible outcomes, and betting accordingly. In BVPs Fiverr memo, the base case was a 0-2x multiple, with a low-probability outcome of a home run (7-32x). The value is being exposed to this outcome, and letting the scenarios play out...

This is what makes Bezos a great capital allocator. Although his successes (Prime + AWS) were unpredictable, it was the positioning to get lucky in the first place that mattered. “Big winners pay for so many experiments…”

@MarceloPLima and @ChrisWMayer both touch on the concept of business through an ecological lens, which I find fascinating. The world we live in is complex, dynamic, and everchanging. Businesses are organisms which must adapt, and often do so in unpredictable ways…

The business I study today might be completely different down the road - something I can't imagine. The driving factor in the success may very well be the willingness of management to take risks. As Gates writes, "We have to take these risks in order to have a long-term future."

Ultimately, there are no rules. The landscape is constantly changing. Studying the core business is crucial, but management analysis is underrated. I think the best investors aren’t the ones who know the future, but the ones who know they don’t know for sure, and bet accordingly.