1. Now that Oruc Reis is back in Antalya, a most welcome development in terms of creating the conditions for direct Turkey-Greece negotiations, let's review the main tenets of the latest escalation in the East Med.

2. The reaction to the seismic exploration of the Turkish ship derives from the understanding that the maritime zone where it undertook the exporation is part of the Greek continental shelf.

3. Given the exact coordinates of the latest venture, this assumption rests solely on the claim that the island of Kastellorizo 2 nautical miles to the Anatolian mainlaind with a population abt 400 and a surface area 10 sq km generates a continental shelf of around 40.000 sq km

4. To the detriment of the Anatolian mainland. A simple look at the map would show how difficult it would be to defend this maximalist claim before international courts.

5. Several cases of intl jurisprudence show that on account in differences in population, surface area, proximity to Turkey, economic activity, length of sea shore etc. Kastellorize would probably end up having close to zero continental shelf if a court were to adjudicate.

6. Before I get a barrage of objections arguing than why Turkey does not go to court, pls read my previous tweets. Which contend that Turkey is not against going to court but along with other bilateral disputes with Greece.

7. In return, in a hypothetical court case, Turkey's assertions that other Dodacanese islands like Rhodes and Crete have no continental shelf would be equally hard to defend.

8. So under these circumstances, we would end up with a very interesting outcome. 1. The Turkey-Libya maritime border agreement would be imperiled. 2. Greece would have no maritime border with Cyprus.

9. Which means that the future East Med gas pipeline would necessarily go through Turkey's exclusive economic zone giving Ankara substantial leverage over its realisation even if legally Turkey can't obstruct its construction.

10. So Turkey would "dominate" the East Med once Kastellorize is recognized as being devoid of a continental shelf. In return Greece would still maintain a substantial advantage in the Aegean by virtue of its multitude of islands.

11. That is why I believe the parties should consider more seriously the formula of a "condominium", namely agree to disagree on maritime borders but agree to cooperate commercially for the exploitation of under sea resources in East Med and the Aegean.

12. I should also add that if one acknowledges that the area where the ship Oruc Reis operated is at the very least a contested maritime zone, then no objections can be made under international law for seismic research by Turkey or Greece for that matter.

13. Countries can engage in such activities in contested zones. Except drilling etc which create irreparable damage. So the objections are valid only if the zone is viewed as being part of Greek EEZ. Which as explained above requires Kastellorizo to be granted the outsized CS.